ATP Shenzhen – 2nd round – Simone Bolelli vs Victor Estrella
There are two low-level ATP events this week, both on hard court – indoors in Kuala Lumpur, where conditions are slow, and a slightly quicker outdoor hard court in Shenzhen, China.
It is in Shenzhen where we find today’s handicap betting opportunity, with Simone Bolelli looking like a very solid prospect to get past the limited veteran Victor Estrella.
Bolelli, who is capable on all courts, has much better 12 month hard court stats than Estrella, five years his senior. Bolelli has held serve 83.0% and broken opponents 18.1% (combined 101.1%), whilst Estrella’s mediocrity is illustrated by 74.2% holds and 14.5% breaks (88.7%). This, as well as Bolelli’s far superior break point expectancy, enabled my model to price the Italian at 1.23.
The man from Italy is currently available around the 1.37 mark and has a magnificent record when a heavy favourite priced between 1.20-1.49 – he is 44-6 in his last 50 matches in this price range, and 12-2 in the last 12 months.
On hard court, Bolelli has won seven straight in this price sample, covering -2.5 games in all matches (one push at -3 games).
In fact, across all surfaces, we have to go back almost a year to the Geneva Challenger in October 2014 to find a match where Bolelli won in this price range but didn’t cover this line (10 straight wins did) and in total only three of his 29 price range wins since January 2014 didn’t cover this line.
On that basis we can be very confident that a Bolelli win will cover the -2.5 game and going for this as a handicap line seems to make much more sense than backing him to win the match overall.
Handicap Betting Recommendation: Back Simone Bolelli -2.5 games at 1.60
Prices correct at time of writing.
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