ATP Shenzhen – 2nd round – Lukas Rosol vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
The second round in this week’s ATP 250s in the Far-East continue today and today’s handicap betting recommendation comes from Shenzhen, where Lukas Rosol and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez meet in the second match on court at around 9am UK time.
My model indicated value on the Spaniard at prices of around 1.80, making him more realistically priced at 1.61. This was largely based on the hold/break statistics on hard court, which show him to be comfortably the better player on the surface in the last 12 months.
In this time period, Garcia-Lopez has held serve 73.5% and broken opponents 28.2% (combined 101.7%) whilst Rosol has held 82.4% and broken 13.7% (combined 96.1%). In effect, Garcia-Lopez has a bigger edge on return than Rosol enjoys on serve.
In the last 12 months, Garcia-Lopez has been strong in this slight favourite role, winning 10/16 when priced between 1.50 and 1.99. In best of three set matches in this price range in this time period, his mean winning game margin was 4.44 and he covered -2 games in 8/9 wins with one push, and in total 8/15 matches, with one push.
Taking the bigger price on Garcia-Lopez -2 games as opposed to the match odds price makes sense here, and this is today’s recommendation.
Recommendation: Back Guillermo Garcia-Lopez -2 games at 2.08
Prices correct at time of writing.
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