ATP St Petersburg – 2nd round – Dominic Thiem vs Andreas Haider-Maurer
The ATP Tour resumed this week after the Davis Cup with two low-level 250 events on Indoor Hard, and a slow Monday with only two matches means that the first round matches are still being played today.
However, one of the few second round matches on the ATP schedule today offers us a solid handicap betting opportunity. This is the all-Austrian clash between young prospect Dominic Thiem, and his less illustrious, but more experienced compatriot, Andreas Haider-Maurer.
After a superb clay court season, Thiem has struggled and he has a lot to prove to me away from the dirt. His statistics (81.8% service holds and 15.7% breaks) on hard and indoor hard in the last 12 months are hardly indicative of a top 20 player and neither is his 11-15 record.
Haider-Maurer stands at 56 in the world, close to his peak ranking of 52. In both head to head matches against his countryman this year, he’s claimed a set before going on to lose, and his stats on hard/indoor hard are similar to Thiem’s (81.8% holds and 16.4% breaks in the last 12 months from a smaller sample of 12 matches).
On this basis, there is very little to justify the current 1.37 about Thiem, who seems a little over-hyped away from clay. He has lost the last three matches on hard/indoor hard when priced 1.20-1.49, against Martin Klizan, James Duckworth and Robby Ginepri and with Haider-Maurer able to take at least a set in eight out of eleven clashes as a heavy underdog priced 3.00-5.99 since January 2014, there looks to be clear value on the lower ranked Austrian to replicate his achievements in the previous head to head matches and do so again.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Back Andreas Haider-Maurer +1.5 sets at 1.99
Prices correct at time of writing.
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