Bayern Munich v Wolfsburg – Allianz Arena at 19.00 live on BT Sport 2
Bayern Munich are unbeaten in 47 Bundesliga matches before the Christmas break (W39-D8-L0) dating back to October 2012 and the Bavarian masters boast a W12-D3-L0 record in their last 15 outings during Oktoberfest. The defending champions have kept clean sheets in 14 of those 15 fixtures.
On Saturday evening, the Darmstadt coach Dirk Schuster said: “The most normal thing in the world happened, Bayern won 3-0 in Darmstadt.” But things aren’t entirely normal in Germany – Bayern Munich aren’t top of the table five games into the 2015/16 season despite posting a 100% win record.
Yes, there’s no stopping Thomas Tuchel’s Borussia Dortmund. The Black & Yellows have bagged wins in all 11 of the new head coach’s fixtures in charge and currently top the tree on goal difference from FC Hollywood. But on Tuesday night, Pep’s troops get their chance to retake leadership of the league with BVB not on show until Wednesday.
Bayern face an intriguing test from last term’s runners-up Wolfsburg at the Allianz Arena. Sure, there’s no great surprise to see the hosts quoted as short odds-on favourites, after all they’ve won 32 f their past 37 matches in Munich and each of their last 17 when entertaining Wednesday night’s visitors.
But it’s often mooted that since Pep arrived in the Bavarian capital, Bayern have struggled against the Bundesliga’s leading lights. Last term FC Hollywood only W3-D3-L4 when taking on teams in sixth and above. And in 20 matches against the same opposition, that record reads W11-D4-L5. In fact, their last five against top-six clubs have returned just one point.
The German giants reloaded in the summer, stocking the squad with even more match-winning quality but it’s fair to say, like the stats in the previous paragraph, Bayern have been far from their imperious selves thus far. Pep’s charges were fortunate to record maximum points at Hoffenheim and at home to Augsburg whilst Darmstadt weren’t a million miles away from grabbing a goal on Saturday.
That should certainly encourage Wolfsburg ahead of their visit. The Wolves have returned W10-D5-L11 when taking on top-six finishers under Dieter Hecking’s watch but the positives are heavily weighted towards their home form. In road trips to the same standard of opposition, the Wolves hold a rotten W1-D1-L8 return.
Wolfsburg are four points behind the hosts and appear to coping just fine without last season’s Bundesliga Player of the Year Kevin De Bruyne and top performer Ivan Perisic. Hecking’s focused on tightening up the backline that sprung a few too many leaks in 2014/15 and the visitors make the journey on the back of three successive shutouts in the league.
So what do we make of Tuesday’s tussle between the two? Over 3 Goals has been chalked up at 1.99 on the Asian Goals line and that does look a little generous. To begin with, exactly half of those aforementioned 10 Bayern matches when hosting top-six sides have seen both teams score as Pep’s men have managed just two clean sheets.
In fact, five of the last six head-to-heads have featured both teams finding the back of the net and Bayern have scored at least twice in 15 of their last 16 Allianz Arena dates with Wolfsburg. The visitors have delivered winning BTTS bets in 10/13 trips to top-six sides with 9/13 (69%) breaking the Over 2.5 Goals barrier and 6/13 (46%) producing four goals or more. With that in mind, I make the Over 3 Goals line a decent value bet for Tuesday night’s showdown.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Over 3 goals at 1.99
Prices correct at the time of writing.
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