Soccerratings.co.uk is a new website ready for the 2016/17 season. The sister site of Tennisratings.co.uk, SoccerRatings aims to supply unique in-play soccer trading data, as well as weekly previews and strategy articles.
Since the launch on the 5th August, a new strategy article has already been added, which looks at whether there are more leads lost/deficit recoveries at various stages of the season. I won’t spoil the entire article, but it does add weight to the school of thought that teams ‘down tools’ towards the end of the season…
The In-Play Soccer Spreadsheets form the basis of SoccerRatings, and these spreadsheets illustrate the lead loss and deficit recovery data for each team for 23 leagues throughout the world.
Rolling 12-month data is used, with regular updates, and these sheets highlight teams who are likely to be more or less vulnerable than average at losing leads, and those who are more or less likely than average to recover deficits. This is filtered into both home, away and overall data.
This isn’t nearly as clear-cut as you may imagine, with the likely perception of top teams being good at retaining leads and recovering deficits. For example, in Italy, Sassuolo rank second in Serie A for recovering goal deficits, ahead of teams such as Juventus, Napoli and both Milan clubs. Furthermore, in the Premier League, Chelsea ranked as one of the worst teams for losing goal leads, whilst in Scotland, the dominant side, Celtic – as displayed again at the weekend against Hearts – were quite vulnerable when a goal up away from home.
Vulnerable leaders – lead loss percentage of over 50% – are highlighted for home, away and overall, whilst teams good at recovery (over 50%) are highlighted as well. This allows for easy identification of possible entry points with which to build a pre-match script.
Certainly, a solid strategy would be to match vulnerable front-runners who are leading in-play with good recoverers, and laying the leading team. However there are a variety of strategies which can be used, with goal markets (e.g. over/under 2.5 goals) and both teams to score markets also tradeable.
Pre-match, the spreadsheets also have application. One example of this is that they can be used to find overs/BTTS candidates by identifying two teams whose matches feature lots of leads lost and/or deficit recoveries.
Hopefully this article has illustrated the variety of options that can be used with the In-Play Soccer Spreadsheets – if you have any questions, please get in touch at [email protected] or via Twitter @SoccerRatings_.
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