QPR v Swindon – Loftus Road at 19:45

In my previous preview, my recommendation of +2.5 goals in the FC Copenhagen v Astra game attracted heavy support, eventually settling at 1.89 before kick off. In addition to the market, support the required outcome occurred in the opening 45 minutes to provide Eastbridge readers with a comfortable winner.

Moving on to the presented game, QPR v Swindon, the market is offering a taking price on +2.5 goals, which is not in accordance with QPR’s heavy favoritism.

QPR made a frenetic start to their opening game of the season in the Championship, scoring after four minutes. Subsequently, the R’s produced a comfortable 3-0 victory which provided the most efficient performance on the opening weekend of the season.

Through observing QPR’s opening ten games of last season, those games produced an eye watering 38 goals, generating an average of 3.80 goals per game.

Historical data generates fascinating and wonderful trends that can be piggybacked to a profitable outcome. Through the observation of QPR’s current market position this allows a reflection of past performance from the +2.5 goals market. Similarly priced teams as QPR have outperformed the markets current perception of the +2.5 goal market.

Public perception currently generates a probability of occurrence in the region of 50.00%. However, historical data provides a probability of 50.83% or odds of 1.97. Not a margin to get overly excited about!

Therefore, in addition to historical data provided from the R’s current market position, historical data must be used from Swindon’s current market position, to manufacture a stable source of data.

Swindon also produced a terrific start to their campaign, with a 1-0 win over Coventry. Albeit, not as convincing as QPR but nevertheless a solid performance. An 86th minute goal from Yaser Kasim allowed The Robins to take all three points.

Swindon come into the EFL Cup game as heavy underdogs. Consequently, data can be extracted from the markets perception to benefit overs backers. Through the observation of past performances of teams priced similarly to Swindon, the occurrence of +2.5 goals has been 54.55%.

Taking into consideration the markets perception of +2.5 goals and the price attached to this and attractive percentage is now starting to favour the overs backer.

Generating an average from the two sources of data presented to find the true probability of +2.5 goals occurring produces a probability of 52.69%, equating to odds of 1.89. Therefore, with the market currently offering 2.00, an attractive margin has been presented which may prove beneficial to follow.

With long term profitability a major goal, I can confidently recommend  +2.5 goals occurring at the current price on offer.

Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 2.00

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @gscurftrader.

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