September 2, 2016

CiCi Bellis vs Angelique Kerber Tennis Handicap Betting Preview – Saturday 3rd September by @Tennisratings

Last night at the US Open, Janko Tipsarevic gave us our fourth consecutive Tennis handicap betting win. The Serb’s superb start to his match against Pablo Carreno-Busta enabling us to cover the +5 game handicap.

Today’s preview moves over to the WTA Tour where last on the schedule tonight, at around 2am UK time. Sees the immensely promising 17 year old, CiCi Bellis, take on the second seed, Angelique Kerber.

Bellis is actually playing the tournament with no prize money, due to US College regulations and currently will be foregoing around $140,000.

However, with her stats being so strong at such a young age, it is likely that she will earn many multiples of this in the future. She really is a player to keep an eye on in years to come.

 

The Prices

Understandably, the world number two Kerber is favourite for the match at 1.10. Having said this, my model made prices value on Bellis, as mentioned earlier, her hard court stats are superb.

 

The Tournament So Far

Bellis has already played five matches, moving through qualifiers for the loss of just one set (to Alison Van Uytvanck). Before getting past Viktoria Golubic in straight sets, and Shelby Rogers in three. My model made her value in both of those wins.

Kerber is yet to drop a set, thrashing Polona Hercog who retired 6-0 1-0 down. The surface matchup was the furthest possible from best for Hercog and then beating Mirjana Lucic-Baroni, 6-2 7-6.

However, as I’ll discuss below, Bellis’ current stats are actually better than Lucic-Baroni’s…

 

Hold/Break Stats

Kerber is very strong on hard court, holding serve 78.8% in the last 12 months, and breaking opponents 48.5% (combined 117.3%). In short, these stats are world class and she deserves her status as one of the tournament favourites.

Indeed, Kerber’s quality isn’t in any doubt, this is merely a case of the market, as it has done all week, under-rating Bellis.

In the last two years on the main tour, Bellis has won an impressive 10 of 17 matches on hard court. Holding 66.7% and breaking 41.9% (combined 108.6%).

This already makes her much better than top 50 on the surface and as I said earlier, a player of huge potential.

 

Historical Trends

 There isn’t many stats to look at for Bellis here. Historically, as an extremely heavy underdog, but we do have plenty to go on for Kerber.

Going back to the start of the 2013 season, she’s 8-1-13 on hard court for covering -7 games when starting the match priced below 1.20. So it is clear that Kerber, on the whole, doesn’t cover large handicap margins easily.

 

Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation

Considering the value on Bellis and Kerber’s struggles to cover big handicap margins easily, backing Bellis +7 games is today’s recommendation.

Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: CiCi Bellis +7 games at 1.72

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @Tennisratings.

Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage, now UK licensed.

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