November 3, 2016

Villarreal v Betis Asian Total Goals Preview – Sunday 6th November by @gscurftrader

Villarreal v Betis- Estadio El Madrigal at 17:30

Analysing the market and the perception being reflected and presented, an element of value can be established on first impression. The market has attached an implied probability of 64.10% on hosts Villarreal. Therefore situating them within the parameters of home teams possessing an implied probability between 60.24% and 74.62%. Utilizing the data from within this filter, implements a probability of 59.71% on +2.5 goals occurring. Consequently equating to odds of 1.67, demonstrating early signs that a significant amount of value can be obtained on the current position being offered.

In addition, data can be extracted for individual team goals. Another aspect which proves beneficial when observing games which may possess value in the +2.5 goals market.Asian Total Goals La Liga 06/11Villarreal average goals against this season: 0.70 per game

Villarreal average goals for this season: 1.70 per game

Visually there appears to be a strong probability of Villarreal producing two or more goals, within this game. However, with that being said there is also a significant probability indicating that Villarreal may suffer defence woes of their own.Asian Total Goals La Liga 06/11 Betis average goals against this season: 2.00 per game (2nd worst in La Liga, only beaten by winless Granada with 2.40)Betis average goals for this season: 1.10 per game

Similar to the data that has been extracted from the parameter in which Villarreal are situated, additional data has been extracted from the implied probability attached with Betis. Therefore, generating a more stable base to establish the theory of the +2.5 goals market being undervalued. As a result, the table below presents a combined source of probabilities for individual team goals.Asian Total Goals La Liga 06/11 In conclusion by combining the two sources of data extracted from both Villarreal and Real Betis’ current market situation, an overall probability of 57.14% can be recycled upon the market. Subsequently the market currently perceives that +2.5 goals warrants a probability of 49.50%. However, with the data that has been presented this allows a beneficial entry point and a profitable long term investment. For this reason I can recommend +2.5 goals at 2.02.

Accordingly with the data already presented, the market has attached an implied probability of 13.51% with Real Betis. Therefore situating Gus Poyet and company within the parameters of travelling teams possessing an implied probability of 24.93% or less. As a result, 54.58% of games within this filter have resulted in +2.5 goals occurring. Hence equating to odds of 1.83, for this reason generating further evidence in favour of +2.5 goals occurring.

Asian Total Goals Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 2.02

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @gscurftrader.

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