Last week’s Tennis handicap betting recommendations yielded two wins, and these previews have now recorded three wins in a row.
We now turn to New York in a bid to record a fourth winner in a row. The US Open moves into the fourth day with second round matches scheduled to be completed. After recommending Pablo Carreno-Busta last week against John Millman in Winston Salem, we now have an opportunity to oppose the Spaniard against the veteran Janko Tipsarevic.
The Prices
After a superb run on hard court, and general improvement on the surface, Carreno-Busta is favourite at about 1.44 for this match, with Tipsarevic available at a shade over 3.00. This, according to my model, is incorrect, with my prices making this clash much closer.
The Tournament So Far
Both players had impressive victories in rather different circumstances.
Carreno-Busta was a heavy favourite against the qualifier, Ilya Ivashka, and duly eased to a straight set victory. Former top ten star Tipsarevic – who has battled serious injury in the last three years – showed shades of the past with an excellent four set win as a heavy underdog against the home favourite, Sam Querrey.
This victory was well deserved, with the Serb generating one more break point than Querrey. He also won 20 more service points. Make no mistake, this was not a match where the underdog won via luck.
Hold/Break Stats
On hard court in the last 12 months, Carreno-Busta has really improved. He has held serve 78.7% and broken opponents 26.2% (combined 104.9%). Data on Tipsarevic, due to his injuries, are hard to come by. I am able to use ratios to compare stats on other surfaces and the Challenger Tour/Qualifiers though. This produced expectation stats of 81.8% hold and 20.1% break for Tipsarevic (101.9%).
Given this, the match is expected to be close. It certainly doesn’t indicate that Carreno-Busta should be anywhere near the market prices.
Previous Weeks
There is also a likelihood that Carreno-Busta is tired following his triumph last week at Winston Salem. He played five matches (11 sets) to win the trophy and in later sets, this may negate any fitness edge he would have over Tipsarevic.
Tipsarevic has rested from competitive action prior to the US Open, with his tournament victory on the clay in the Qingdao Challenger his last outing. In that, he got the better of seasoned Challenger clay courters Pere Riba and Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo. He dropped one set, including playing three qualifiers, (to Ramirez-Hidalgo in the final) en route to the trophy. Whilst the opponent quality wasn’t strong, he breezed through this tournament and gave an indication that he was getting back to something nearer his previous level – an assertion backed up by Tuesday’s win over Querrey.
Historical Trends
Sadly, there isn’t much to go on, historically. Carreno-Busta has only played five Grand Slam matches when priced under 1.50, and three of those were qualifiers. Tipsarevic hasn’t played an abundance of matches full-stop in the last couple of years.
Recommendation
Despite there being little to go on with historical trends, with my model indicating value on Tipsarevic, and there being clear indicators that he is recovering some level of form following bad injury issues, as well as the potential fatigue on Carreno-Busta, I am happy to recommend Tipsarevic +5 games on the Tennis Handicap Betting market at 1.83 for this match.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Janko Tipsarevic +5 games at 1.83
Prices correct at time of writing.
By @Tennisratings.
Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage, now UK licensed.
