More value Asian Handicap betting recomendations from Norway, thanks to our resident soccer betting expert @meatmansoccer!
Sogndal v Stabaek
The hosts’ mini slump continued last week when they held to a 1-1 draw away against lowly Start. Sogndal led for the majority of that game but paid the price for being too negative and just trying to hold onto a slender advantage. Start equalised late on which was a blow to Eirik Bakke’s men, who have now only won 1 of their last 6 games.
Sogndal went on a great eleven match unbeaten run but I have noticed a gradual decline for a while, they just haven’t been at their best. That’s not to say they are that bad, just not playing at the same level they were a couple of months ago. I’ve said this for a while, but ever since they lost key midfielder Babacar Sarr to Molde, they haven’t had the same driving force in the middle of the park.
Toni Ordinas’ men obtained a massive three points last week against Aalesund (3-1). The visitors are now third from bottom and have steadily been moving upwards since BIlly McKinlay got sacked. In some ways, winning last week was the big monkey off their back. Their better performances under Ordinas have actually been away from home where he’s produced some good tactical gameplans, utilising the attacking strength of his team.
Stabaek have only lost once in seven games since their new manager took over and they are a different outfit compared to what they were in the first half of the season. During the transfer window they both lost and gained some players, but seemed absolutely fine last week during their victory.
Sogndal beat Stabaek 1-0 in the reverse fixture but I sense the visitors can gain some revenge here. I just think both sides approach the match in contrasting form. Sogndal are in a mini-slump period and not what they once were. Let’s not forget; on paper this isn’t the most talented outfit and maybe they overachieved a bit during their long unbeaten run. Stabaek are a much improved outfit and the general atmosphere at the club is far better than it was under McKlinlay.
I’d be surprised if they lost this game and I’m also surprised the bookies are offering a +0.5 asian handicap. Overall, I actually think there’s a good chance Stabaek can collect all three points, but we only need them to draw to cover this handicap. They should be able to manage that, so this looks like a good value pick.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Stabaek +0.5 at 1.82
Odd v Valerenga
The Skien outfit have really let their season slip. During the first half of the campaign they were a legitimate challenger to Rosenborg for the title, but a poor mid season slump has seen their form really drop. Fagermo’s men have shockingly only won 1 of their last 6 games, and the victory was against lowly Start, so doesn’t really count.
A combination of factors have been to blame, but for now Odd seem to have lost their spark and desperately need it to re-ignite. They still sit second in the table but a number of challenges like Brann & Sarpsborg are starting to line up below. The heat is on and Odd need to respond sooner rather than later. Injuries haven’t helped them recently, but at the time of writing the situation is expected to be better than it has been in recent weeks.
VIF’s winning run came to an end last week when they were held by Bodo. The Oslo club are still unbeaten in their last six matches though and picked up a whopping 14 points during this period. It’s been a great run for Kjetil Rekdal’s men and looks to have sent them clear of relegation. There’s still some work to be done but ‘Enga can breathe a lot more easily compared to a couple of months ago.
They do have to cope with a double suspension blow at the back for this fixture, with both Waehler & Larsen ruled out. Valerenga have had a very settled team recently so this could cause some defensive issues. However, the most impressive thing about them of late is how they’ve dominated games and looked dangerous going forwards.
Both teams are in contrasting form ahead of the game. Odd are in a bit of a slump, whilst Valerenga are flying. Therefore, I’m surprised Odd are as short as 1.75 on a -0.5 asian handicap. I personally wouldn’t be backing them at that price and this is more because of reputation rather than current form. The Valerenga double suspension at the back does have to be considered though.
Therefore, my preferred pick for the game is over 2.75 goals. Odd can be a bit hit or miss with overs and their offense isn’t doing anything great right now. But I sense this will be an end to end, open type game which contains quite a few goals. Valerenga might have to rely on their own attack force to bail them out of trouble. Over 2.75 is available around the 1.80-85 range here and there should be at least three goals for the pick to prevail.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Over 2.75 goals at 1.84
Prices correct at time of writing.
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