WTA US Open – Semi-Final – Serena Williams vs Roberta Vinci
As the WTA tournament at the US Open enters the semi-final stage, just two matches separate Serena Williams from a historic 2015 calendar year Grand Slam.
The Italian veteran, Roberta Vinci, is the opponent facing the Williams juggernaut tonight, and whilst there is no value on the match odds, historical tendencies do provide us with today’s handicap betting opportunity.
Williams is understandably priced very short by the market to get past Vinci. Current prices are around the 1.07 mark, with my model pricing the world number one at a very similar level.
However, in her first singles semi-final, Vinci will be in uncharted territory, and despite her general tour experience (as well as her regular appearances in the latter stages of doubles events), the occasion in front of a partisan home crowd for Williams has a strong chance of affecting her.
In addition to this, the craft and guile of her typical style may struggle to match-up against the power of Williams, and against current top-level opponents, Vinci has struggled badly.
Since 2012, Vinci has a pair of solitary wins over Simona Halep when the Romanian was ranked around the 50 mark, and has lost six matches in consecutive sets against Williams and Maria Sharapova. Taking the matches against Sharapova and Williams in isolation, she has lost by 47 games in 12 sets (3.92 games per set), and creating a trio by bringing in Halep into the equation, she has lost by an average of 2.79 games per set and has won 16.67% of sets played.
Against all opponents when priced over 6.00 on hard court since 2012, Vinci has won once in five matches (against Agnieszka Radwanska – a similar style match up with Radwanska not a powerful player) losing by an average of 2.30 games per set and winning 20% of sets played. Increasing the time period to her whole career doesn’t do the Italian many more favours, slightly upping her set win percentage to 23.08% and decreasing the margin per set to 1.88 games.
The statistics indicate that Vinci will have her work cut out to avoid a heavy defeat this evening, and I like a variety of split-stake bets tonight. Williams -5.5 games looks very positive considering the recent record of Vinci against the current top three, and I also feel taking a chance on the bigger handicap line of -7.5 games at 3.00 is worthwhile, given her recent record against Williams and Sharapova.
Recommendation: Back Serena Williams -5.5 games at 1.55, Back Williams -7.5 games at 3.00 (split stake)
Prices correct at the time of writing.
Join Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage for your US Open 2015 betting!