September 11, 2015

US Open Handicap Betting Preview – Friday 11th September by @Tennisratings

ATP US Open – Semi-Final – Stan Wawrinka vs Roger Federer

On an action-packed day at Flushing Meadows, the mens semi-finals follow the rain-delayed womens semi-finals, where yesterdays game handicap recommendation for Serena Williams is yet to be played.

Based on my model, its possible to make a case for handicap bets on both of the mens favourites being value, with Novak Djokovic having a dominant 13-0 head to head lead over Marin Cilic, and the world number one winning 34/39 sets in these meetings.  

Almost as dominant is Roger Federers 17-3 lead over compatriot Stan Wawrinka, although its worth mentioning that Wawrinkas performances in these meetings have improved in the last 18 months or so.

However, whilst these performances will undoubtedly give Wawrinka heart, Federers 2015 stats on hard court indicate that he will be very difficult to get the better of.  Only two opponents have walked off court with a victory – Andreas Seppis shock triumph at the Australian Open, and Novak Djokovic on the slow courts of Indian Wells – against the Swiss legend, with 26 defeated.  In these 28 matches, Federer has held serve an incredible 94.3% – better than all on Tour except the big serving duo of Ivo Karlovic and John Isner – whilst breaking opponents 31.9%.  These combine to generate a stratospheric 126.2% combined, and these are legendary statistics.

These numbers make Wawrinka look very ordinary in comparison.  A 17-5 record on hard courts is strong enough, with Wawrinka holding 85.6% and breaking opponents 22.1% (107.7%), but the 18.5% difference between the two players is huge, and combined with the head to head record, as well as slightly higher opponent quality for Federer, generated a model price of 1.15 about the higher ranked Swiss player, much bigger than the 1.34 available in the market.

A decent sample of price range historical statistics are hard to come by in Grand Slams, due to their infrequency, however its worth mentioning that all but one of Federers victories have come by 5 games or more when priced between 1.20 and 1.49 on hard court in Grand Slams, with a solitary 3 game win over Gael Monfils at this venue last year.

With just one win coming via the exact 5 game margin, Im happy to go for the 1.99 about Federer to cover this line as opposed to the 1.82 on -4.5 games, and this is todays recommendation.

Recommendation: Back Roger Federer -5 games at 1.99

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @Tennisratings.

Check out @Tennisratings preview for Serena Williams v Roberta Vinci by clicking here.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *