June 20, 2015

Uruguay v Paraguay Asian Handicap Betting Preview – Saturday 20th June

Uruguay v Paraguay – Estadio La Portada, La Serena at 20:00 live on Premier Sport

Uruguay and Paraguay meet tonight in a crucial match that will decide their fate in this years Copa America. Paraguay currently have the advantage, sitting on 4 points, level with Argentina, a point ahead of Uruguay on 3.

La Celeste go into the match knowing the only way to secure qualification is with a win but if my maths are right, a draw would put them on 4 points and they should qualify in third as one of two third place finishers, as Ecuador finished Group A on 3 points in third.

It’s all very complicated in a tournament it’s harder to get knocked out of the group stages than it is to qualify.

Uruguay go into the game as favourites at 2.38 with the draw at 3.1 and Paraguay at 3.9. The draw is going to be a popular bet as it will be a result that would help both sides.

Paraguay are looking for revenge after they lost 3-0 to Uruguay in the Copa America final 4 years ago. Both are very different sides now and go into the game having not produced their best so far.

La Albirroja’s come back against tournament favourites Argentina was a shock but they showed what they are capable of. They were lucky to beat Jamaica, thanks to a goalkeeping error and a lot of good fortune, but didn’t produce what they did in the second half in their opener.

Despite their mediocre performance against the Reggae Boyz, the 3.9 on offer to them to defeat Uruguay is a generous price considering La Celeste have only scored one goal this tournament from a set piece and don’t look a threat going forward.

Without Luis Suarez they lack creativity and pace. Edison Cavani has not brought his domestic form to the Copa America and has been a disappointment so far. They are going to have a tough time breaking down a fairly tight Paraguay defence which has always been a strong area for La Albirroja.

Similarly the Uruguayan defence has been strong, conceding just once and they will need to keep it tight against Paraguay who managed to put 2 past Argentina.

A tepid low scoring match is expected and the Under 1.5 goals price at 2.65 might be worth a bet considering 3 of their 4 matches so far in the competition have ended 1-0.

As I said previously, Paraguay’s price represents a bit of value to me and I like the 1.98 on offer for Paraguay +0.25 on the Asian Handicap betting market, which will see us pick up a full profit if they win and a half win if it does end all square.

 

Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Paraguay +0.25 @ 1.98

Prices correct at time of writing.

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