Tottenham V Manchester City – White Hart Lane at 12:45 live on BT Sport 1
Another big match lined up for the early kick off this weekend in the Premier League, as table topping Manchester City visit Tottenham at White Hart Lane.
I have been in decent form this past week with winners of Verona +0.5 at 2.10, Chelsea -0.25 at 2.14 & Green Bay -3.5 at 2.08. So, let’s look at finding another Asian handicap value winner on this big clash in North London.
Mauricio Pochettino’s summer transfer dealings were focused on the defence with Kevin Wimmer, Kieran Trippier and Toby Alderweireld all drafted in to bolster the backline options. Barring their sloppy end to the match at home against Stoke, the defence has played well this season with just four goals conceded in six games.
But, with last season’s goal scoring sensation Harry Kane misfiring up front, they have been stuggling to score goals and the manager had to move quickly to secure Son Heung-min from Bayer Leverkusen as well. Luckily for Spurs the South Korean has hit the ground running with three goals in his three starts so far.
Coming into this big test against City, Pochettino has injury concerns over Ryan Mason, Mousa Dembele and Nabil Bentaleb but with Christian Eriksen back to full fitness, he is able to deploy his preferred front four with Son, Kane and Nacer Chadli completing the forward positions.
Visitors City will be looking to bounce back from their shock home defeat last time out in the Premier League, when West Ham chalked up their third big upset on the road this season. City were a little unlucky not to take something from the match, after they effectively camped out on the edge of the Hammers box and had a shooting practice session with 27 attempts in total.
Obviously, that unexpected defeat will have knocked their confidence a little but they clearly created enough chances to win two games so, Manuel Pellegrini should not be overly concerned about a loss of form at this stage.
The concerns he does have are with injuries to key players. Pablo Zabaleta remains in the treatment room, while both Vincent Kompany and Eliaquim Mangala are serious doubts for this Saturday lunchtime kick off. On top of these defensive issues both David Silva and Wilfried Bony will need to be assessed before the game to see if they are fit to start.
However, the Citizens have a great record against their host’s with six wins in the past eight league meetings. They have also enjoyed some very big victories against the Lillywhites with 5-1 and 6-0 triumphs last season and another 5-1 win at the Lane back in 2011.
As good as Manchester City look going forward, I do not think they will be blowing Spurs away tomorrow, especially if David Silva is missing from their line up and their central defence is made up of Nicolas Otamendi and Martin Demichelis.
Looking at the betting markets for this match, the visitors are priced up as 1.93 favourites to take all three points and the Asian handicap betting line is set at +/- 0.5. This is a line which Spurs covered in three of their four home games with top four opponents last season, unfortunately the one side they did not cover against was City.
My tissue pricing for this match is not far off the market price, but if anything there is a sliver of value on the visitors, especially when you consider the dominant record over Spurs but the potentially weaker team does balance that out somewhat.
Even if City are missing David Silva, the summer additions of Kevin de Bruyne and Raheem Sterling gives them some serious pace and creativity. Plus, if Harry Kane and the Spurs attack continue to misfire in front of goal, they will struggle to beat anyone, let alone the league leaders.
I do not think it is huge value but backing Manchester City to pick up all three points tomorrow, seems like the only option here.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Manchester City -0.5 at 1.96
Prices correct at the time of writing.
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