Lillestrim vs Mjondalen & Rosenborg vs Viking
I’ve had the suspicion for a while that Mjondalen are prime relegation contenders in the 2015 Tippilaegen, and I expect further pain as they head to Lillestrom on Saturday afternoon.
After a decent start to the season, Mjondalen have lost their way and have found themselves outplayed in just about all recent games only picking up 5 points in their most recent 8 matches. Notably last week they were comfortably beaten 1-0 at home to Valerenga, a side who had lost 4 straight coming into the match.
Additional to this, Mjondalen have only collected 5 points from 11 games all season and have a tough job controlling matters on the road. Having been promoted by finished third in Norway’s second tier, it is becoming all too apparent that the Tippilaegen is a bridge too far.
Lillestrom can attribute their current 9th out of 16 place standing due to their good record at the Arasen Stadium. They have only been beaten at home off top 4 teams and can be fully trusted to get the job done against weaker teams with 21 points from 12 home games so far this season.
The Canaries comfortably saw off similarly weak opposition in Aelesunds and Tromso in their last 2 home games and with no injury worries, can expect more of the same on Saturday.
1.91 (-0.5 handicap) looks a phenomenal price for the Birds and can be backed with confidence.
Sunday’s game of the day comes when table toppers Rosenborg host 3rd placed Viking. Rosenborg are comfortable 1.45 favourites and with their tremendous all round record it’s easy to see why most bookmakers have them so short.
The angle into this game however will come in the goals market. The initial line for the game has been set at 3.25 goals and despite the usual goal fest you can expect from the Tippilaegen, this looks high.
Rosenborg have now gone 6 games straight with games going under 2.5 with three of those featuring just a single goal, most recently a surprise 1-0 loss to Molde.
Viking have played some good football away from home this season and have been hard to beat away from home. An excellent record of only 12 goals conceded on the road this season shows they are no mugs, and Rosenborg will have a hard time breaking them down.
With the profiles both teams are bringing to the game, it’s hard to see where goals are coming from.
It’s tempting to see under 2.5 goals currently available at odds of 2.95 but with the additional insurance that the under 3.25 market brings, only four goals will net you a loss on the game and at odds of 2.00, this is the angle in.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: – Lillestrom -0.5 at 1.91
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Rosenborg vs Viking Under 3.25 goals at 2.00
Prices correct at time of writing.
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