Start v Haugesund & Molde v Lillestrom
Norway is always a fun proposition when approaching on a punting angle purely due to the natural end to end play that exists in the Tippilaegen. At 3.21 goals per game average so far for the season, it ranks as one of the highest in Europe.
I like to target at least one game that is a contender for a goals bet so with that in mind the pick of this weekend’s games for a goals bet comes when Start host Haugesund. Strangely for me however, and for the Tippilaegen, there’s an under’s bet waiting to be had.
Both of these teams come into the game in poor form, Start losing their last six, Haugesund their last two. More interestingly, for the purposes of my first selection at least, is how these two teams match up to potentially cancel each other out. Start have not kept a clean sheet at home all season and can usually be banked on to ship goals against the more naturally flowing of the Norwegian league.
However Haugesund typically have looked to keep it tight by Norwegian standards when hitting the road. They have scored only seven away goals all season (lowest in the league), and have had played a patient game in just about all games on their travels to date.
Start have failed to score at home for nearly two months, and on the back of such poor form overall coming into the game coupled with Haugesunds cagey away approach, this looks nailed on for a chess match
As highlighted in the opening paragraph, the natural play in Norway is usually open, and the lines are usually adjusted accordingly. This is one that appears to have crept under the radar and under 2.5, which in my eyes should be a mild favourite, can be backed at 2.55. This looks excellent value and well worth a punt.
The 2nd selection of Sundays games heads over to Molde who host Lillestrom. Molde are a team who play a much better brand of football than their current 7th place standing would suggest. They’re a slick flowing unit who seem to find a way of shooting themselves in the foot time after time. Sunday represents another potential banana skin.
Lillestrom are what they are. Not in the top bracket of Norwegian football, but safely away from the relegation zone. Ten points from ten games away from home and a goal differential of minus three. Molde deserve to be favourites. They’re overall just a better unit. But not that much better.
At 1.37, the home price is way too rich. I expected Molde to be around the 1.60 mark so the way to play is to be taking Lillestrom getting 1.25 goals at 2.30. If we lose by one, we have a half void / half winner. If Lillestrom read the script, we have a great chance of copping the lot.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Start v Haugesund under 2.5 at 2.55
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Lillestrom +1.25 at 2.30
Prices correct at the time of writing.
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