Sarpsborg v Aslesunds & Haugesund v Bodo/Glimt
Week 21 in Norway. Yes week 21. I wonder how long before the rest of Europe clocks on that playing football through the winter is grim. Anyway, more Scandic opportunities to be had, starting firstly with two teams who seemingly don’t want to win.
Sarpsborg, winless in 10, host the equally floundering Aalesunds. Ordinarily this would be last on my list of games to watch over the weekend, but when bookmakers set their lines in unusual places, it’s time to get involved.
Sarpsborg have the worst home record in the league. A fairly pathetic 12 goals in 10 home fixtures highlights how much Geir Bakke’s men have struggled to get going all campaign, especially considering it has some of the most open play and highest scoring games in Europe. A visit by a team with almost as shoddy an away record as their own home form would seemingly give cause for hope.
Aalesunds themselves have had major issues all season controlling possession and stopping the opposition, conceding in all away games in 2015. However, last week against Stromsgodset (still with an outside shout of Europe), Aalesunds put showed that they still are a force to be reckoned with bagging their 3rd home win on the bounce.
The angle with the game surely has to lie in how much emphasis you place in Aalesunds away form. No win away since May (where they bagged 2 on the spin, including 4th placed Valerenga), there is a serious level of doubt in their ability to get the job done on their travels. But when showing up to team with no win of any description since May, there has to be a level of expectation to leave with something.
In an ugly game to price up, I made this close to a ‘pick em’. With Aalesunds being available at 2.05 getting half a goal head start, it’s good value to expect Sarpsborg winless run to extend to 11 and any sort of away result to land the money.
This weekend’s other recommendation comes in the shape of goals in the Haugesund v Bodo/Glimt clash. The line makers got this about right in terms of Haugesund being relatively solid favourites, but they appear to have underestimated the potential for goals.
3 things we know for certain. Haugesund at home play open attacking football. Only 2 home clean sheets all season shows their defensive frailties. Bodo/Glimt will attack with the last time they failed to score being back in June. Also Bodo/Glimt haven’t kept a clean sheet away from home all season.
Add it all together and my calculations give a goal expectation at around the 3.25 mark. The line makers have definitely gone shy here at 2.75.
Take the over 3.0/3.5 goals market at odds of 2.55 and grab a bag of popcorn.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Aalesunds +0.5 at 2.05
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Haugesund v Bodo/Glimt – Over 3.25 goals at 2.55
Prices correct at time of writing.
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