Viking v Sarpsborg & Stabaek v Molde
The second round of fixures from the Tippeligaen runs this weekend and we are once again looking for goals to to land a profit in the first of the featured games as Viking host Sarpsborg in a 5pm kick off UK time.
After a relatively cagey start to the season by Norwegian standards (only 1.73 goals per game against a normal average of over 3), I expect things to get flowing in Stavangar as these two look a good fit for some goalmouth action.
In the 18 games that VIking played at home last season, 11 of them landed the over 2.5 goals (61%). When Sarpsborg hit their travels last season against teams that finished inside the top six, it landed on 10 of 14 occasions (71%), with over 3.5 landing an incredible 9 from 14 (64%).
It then seems slightly odd to me that all things considered over 2.5 goals is the same price as under. OK, the opening week of the season did highlight some rustiness isses potentially but the historical trends going into the game are just too strong, making over 2.5 at 2.00 the only sensible selection.
In the later kick off, Stabaek host Molde in a 7pm kick off in a game where there appears to be a dodgy favourite.
Staebek have had a real resurgence over the past couple of years after being dumped out the league in 2012, they immefiately regained promotion before finishes of 9th and 3rd in the last two seasons highlight their improved fortunes.
Molde are without question the classier squad, and won the league in 3 of the last 5 seasons. Ole Gunnar Solsjaers team will need to significantly step up on last years 6th place effort in order for him to hold onto his job longer than the initial feel good factor.
In week 1, neither team impressed with Staebek going down 1-0 on the road to Aalesunds and Molde only managing a point from the Arctic CIrcle travellers, Tromso.
Being early season with so many variables at play, it seems strange to see Molde priced up at 2.05 away from home, seemingly entirely based on hype. There is enough value in taking Stabaek to get something out the game so its worth acking them at 1.90 plus 0.5 goals, effectively to get something out of the game.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Viking v Sarpsborg Over 2.5 Goals at 2.00
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Stabaek +0.5 at 2.00
Prices correct at time of writing.
By @ChrisOgle2
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