ATP Challenger Guadalajara – Final – Stephane Robert vs Malek Jaziri
It’s 9-2-2 in betting recommendations so far this season and we are still waiting to hit double figures for the campaign after our recommendation on Fernando Verdasco was voided when opponent Martin Klizan retired a break of serve down at Indian Wells last week.
As is often the case in the latter stages of high profile events, the bookmakers don’t tend to make many mistakes, with the form and ability lines of elite players well established. Frequently in these scenarios, value seekers are best served dropping down to the Challenger Tour, and this is our plan for today’s preview.
The $100k event in Guadalajara certainly isn’t nearly as glamorous as the Masters in California, but I do like the current market price at over even money about the Tunisian, Malek Jaziri.
Jaziri, whose ranking has dropped out of the top 100 since the start of the season, has seen his fortunes improve in Mexico this week, after an array of underdog defeats in the early months this year. It’s worth noting however, that this run to the final in Guadalajara is far from a shock to me, with my model making him value in all four of his previous matches this week.
This was also the case when I priced up today’s match against the French veteran, Stephane Robert, and Jaziri had the very slight 1.98 edge on my model.
When researching the previous handicap lines for Jaziri, I noticed that he has a history of being priced incorrectly as a slight underdog by the market. As well as the two underdog wins this week, against Marinko Matosevic and Lucas Pouille, he has earned a solid 6-6 record when priced as a 2.00-2.99 underdog on hard court since the start of 2014.
Rubber-stamping this record is his 7-7 record in that price range across all surfaces in the last 12 months, although there were several tight victories in those matches, with Jaziri winning by a two game margin on three occasions.
As a slight pre-match underdog, the only handicap line for Jaziri giving up games is -2.5 games, and I’m discouraged by this option based on his previous match results. However, I do feel that backing Jaziri at 2.14 represents value and this is today’s recommendation.
Betting Recommendation: Back Malek Jaziri to win at 2.14
Prices correct at the time of writing.
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