ATP Istanbul – Second Round – Santiago Giraldo vs Andrey Rublev

Santiago Giraldo converted for us last Wednesday giving up -4 games on the game handicap against Joao Sousa, and I’m relying on the Colombian again today to build on last week’s 100% record against hot prospect Andrey Rublev this afternoon.

There can be no doubt that Giraldo is a solid performer on clay, winning 17 out of 28 matches on the dirt in the last 12 months. He’s held 80.1% on clay, and broken opponents 24.0%, so his level is around top 20 on the surface.

Whilst opponent Rublev’s potential is undoubted, he still has a lot to prove at this level winning four from eight ATP main draw matches in the last 12 months, holding 75.0% and breaking 21.6%, and he is 2-2 in Challengers, holding 75.5% and breaking 20.8%.

On this basis we can see that the Russian is a little limited on return currently and around average on serve, and is worse than Giraldo on both counts – particularly given the low opponent quality in the Challenger matches.

Giraldo currently is available at 1.69, which I make strong value, with my model pricing him at 1.48. In addition to this, looking at the handicap betting stats, the fourth seed in Istanbul has won seven from nine completed matches when priced 1.50-1.99 since July 2013, and all but one of his wins came via at least three games.

With this factored into my thoughts, it seems logical to take the bigger price on Giraldo than the 1.69 on the outright win, with 2.03 on offer on him giving up 2.5 games, and this is today’s recommendation.

Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Santiago Giraldo -2.5 Games at 2.03

Price correct at the time of writing.

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