ATP Barcelona – Quarter Final – Martin Klizan vs Tommy Robredo
Santiago Giraldo on the game handicap converted for readers on Wednesday in the second round of ATP Barcelona, and we return to Spain again for today’s recommendation.
At around 1pm UK time, Martin Klizan takes on home favourite Tommy Robredo, and my stats indicate that the Spaniard may not have things all his own way in a potentially tough quarter-final.
The Slovak has quietly built up his ranking to 29, just three spots off a career high, and his form on clay is the foundation for this improvement – he boasts a superb 19-7 record on the dirt in the last 12 months (73% win percentage). Robredo has only won 57% (16-12) on clay in the same time period, albeit against marginally higher quality opposition.
In this time period, Robredo has the edge on serve (82.7% hold compared to Klizan’s 76.2%) but is worse on return, breaking opponents 25.5% as opposed to Klizan’s 30.2%. This strong return helped Klizan turn around an opening set break deficit against Victor Estrella Burgos yesterday, and he converted 4 of 7 break points in a straightforward victory.
With all things considered, my model priced Klizan at 2.49, indicating that market prices of around 3.00 on Klizan are value.
Furthermore, Klizan has an excellent record priced between a 2.00 and 4.00 underdog on clay, taking at least a set in 7 out of 8 matches since January 2014, and a further 4 from 6 in 2013. With there being model value on Klizan as well today, backing him to take at least a set looks to be a very strong betting handicap prospect indeed today, and is today’s recommendation.
Recommendation: Back Martin Klizan +1.5 sets at 1.82
Prices correct at time of writing.
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