ATP Challenger Sarasota – Second Round – Renzo Olivo vs Alejandro Gonzalez

Friday’s stunning double-bet handicap win at long odds on Damir Dzumhur, who destroyed Andreas Haider-Maurer in Casablanca, should have followers of this column in good heart and I’m looking to follow this up today in the Sarasota Challenger this evening.

Far-removed from the glitz and glamour of Monte Carlo, where the top men’s players are participating this week, is the clay of Sarasota, where prize money totals $100,000, significantly lower than the €3.6m available in Monaco this week.

However, as mentioned in previous previews, high level events – with highly exposed players – may not be the best value Tennis handicap betting prospect, and this is indeed the case today with my model indicating that none of the 24 players on show represent at least 4% implied value on market prices.

With attention turned to Challengers, my model highlighted very strong value on Alejandro Gonzalez today against Renzo Olivo tonight in Sarasota.  On a general note, I’m struggling to think of many Challenger players that are more over-rated than Olivo currently, and regular readers will remember I successfully opposed him on the handicap at ATP Quito against Victor Estrella Burgos.

The 23 year old Argentine still lies at 190 in the world, well below Gonzalez’s rank of 100, and the clay court statistics of the two players are like chalk and cheese.

Olivo has won just 10 of 24 Challenger matches on clay court in the last 12 months (42%), which is well below Gonzalez’s 15-6 record (71%).  The hold/break statistics are just as much in favour of the Colombian, who has held 79.9% compared to Olivo’s 67.6% and broken 25.3% compared to 22.6%.  These stats show that Olivo is very weak on serve, in particular, and he should have issues holding onto leads currently.  My model priced Gonzalez at 1.41, making the market prices of around 1.71 excellent value.

Gonzalez will also take heart from claiming the two head to head wins over Olivo, both on clay, in 2013.  Whilst this was not factored into my model pricing, it clearly is a positive factor.

As a slight 1.50-1.99 SP favourite on clay in Challengers, Gonzalez performs well, winning 28 of his 45 career matches, and he is 16-7 with this criteria going back to the start of 2013.

Of these wins, he averaged wins by 5.13 games, and covered at least a 3 game win margin in 15 of the 16 wins – 15/23 out of his total filtered matches (implied odds of 1.53).

On this basis, the 1.78 about Gonzalez to win -1.5 games is an attractive prospect, and is today’s recommendation.

Recommendation: Back Alejandro Gonzalez -1.5 games at 1.78

Prices correct at time at time of writing.

By @Tennisratings.

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