ATP Metz – 2nd round – Paolo Lorenzi vs Philipp Kohlschreiber
Second round matches in this week’s Indoor Hard 250 events continue today on the ATP Tour, and today’s handicap betting opportunity focuses on both player fatigue and the speed of the courts in Metz.
Philipp Kohlschreiber has had a tough schedule in the last week, playing Davis Cup in the Dominican Republic, and posted on Facebook last night saying how tired he was after playing two singles matches (although both were relatively facile) and a long flight back to Europe.
Despite this, he starts at around 1.10 against the Italian veteran clay-courter, Lorenzi, which I make very short given such fitness concerns about the German.
Also worth mentioning is that Kohlschreiber hasn’t had the best of years away from clay. In the last 12 months on hard/indoor hard he has a poor 10-12 record, holding serve 82.2% and breaking opponents 19.2%, showing declines from both 2013 and 2014 stats – Kohlschreiber celebrates his 32nd birthday next week, and age may be catching up on him.
Even against a mediocre opponent like Lorenzi, those stats don’t justify the starting price, and the return percentage won’t give him assistance to win by at least three breaks and cover the -5.5 game handicap.
In three completed Indoor Hard matches in his career priced under 1.20, Kohlschreiber has failed to cover the -5.5 game handicap line, and this included a 6-3 7-5 win over Lorenzi at this venue last year.
On hard and indoor hard in best of three set matches priced below 1.20 since 2010, Kohlschreiber is 3-6 for covering this line. These historical handicap statistics give further weight to making the +5.5 game handicap line on Lorenzi, at 1.83, strong value today.
Handicap Betting Recommendation: Back Paolo Lorenzi +5.5 games at 1.83
Prices correct at time of writing.
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