ATP Basel – Semi-Final – Rafael Nadal vs Richard Gasquet
The penultimate main tour events of the 2015 season are at the semi-final stages this afternoon and in Basel, historical handicap tendencies give us today’s handicap betting recommendation.
In the opening match, on court at around 1:30pm UK time, Rafael Nadal takes on Richard Gasquet and the Spaniard has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, with a trio of minimum semi-final results in Beijing, Shanghai and now here in Switzerland this week.
He holds a 13-1 head to head lead with Gasquet’s solitary win coming in their opening encounter where Nadal retired with an injury, so he should be coming into this clash in confident mood.
This has been reflected with confidence in Nadal in the markets moving him from around 1.60 to a current 1.40 and this still looks to be value, with my model pricing him at 1.25, with a large amount of this being due to the head to head record and Gasquet’s horrific results against elite players.
Gasquet’s record was highlighted in a preview several months ago when he took on Andy Murray and his stats are worth reminding readers of. Across all surfaces against top ten opponents he is 11-39 in his last 50 matches, returning -40% ROI based on Pinnacle Sports’ closing prices.
Against the traditional elite quartet of Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Andy Murray and Nadal since 2012, Gasquet has won just one match out of 21, and a mere seven sets (so wins a set once in every three matches on average), with an average of a 2.47 game per set deficit. In three head to head matches against Nadal in this time period, he’s not won a set and lost by an average of 3.14 games per set.
It is clear from these damning statistics that Gasquet faces a big struggle to overturn history with the Frenchman frequently beaten before he steps out on court against the elite. The last time he took a set against Nadal was in Toronto in 2008 – Nadal has since won eight matches in straight sets.
On this basis, and value on Nadal pre-match, recommending the Spaniard to win in straight sets at 2.10 seems very logical indeed. Further backing of Nadal to win -3.5 games at 1.90 also appeals.
Recommendation: Split Stake Back Rafael Nadal to win 2-0 at 2.10, and -3.5 games at 1.90
Prices correct at time of writing.
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