Midtjylland v Viborg & OB v Brondby
Occasionally in sports betting writing, you find yourself concerned with repeating the same things mentioned in previous articles. On the flip side, you also unearth gems that although may have been highlighted before, are worth sticking with until a notable shift in trend becomes apparent.
In Danish football, that trend is Midtjylland at home. For those of you that are not close followers of the beautiful game in Denmark, Midtjylland play a style of football that that could be described as hit and run. Or hit and hide depending on your viewpoint.
On Saturday Evening, Midtjylland host relegation threatened Viborg with the home team looking to bag all 3 points to try and overtake league leaders Copenhagen.
Until last week there hadn’t been a single home game in which the goal total had gone over 2.5 goals, and that trend was only bucked when Midtjylland found themselves 1-0 down thanks to a wonder strike against Randers.
After a change in strategy to regain a 2-1 lead, it was back to same old Midtjylland as they held the ball to kill off the game once the lead was regained. In that match, Randers didn’t really offer much in an attacking threat, as does anyone who comes to the MCH Arena, and they can’t have too many worries about the visit of a team who really struggle to find the net.
In 6 of VIborgs last 8 matches, the total has gone under 2.5. They have scored only 2 goals in their last 4 away matches and haven’t scored twice in any away fixture this season.
If it looks like an unders, and smells like an unders, and tastes like an unders, its unders. For the game not to reach 3 goals, you can still avail yourself of odds of 1.85. When all stats show it should be flirting with the 1.5 mark, it’s time to lump on and enjoy the snoozefest.
Elsewhere in Denmark, there is an interesting match on Sunday evening as OB of Odense host a fast improving Brondby side. Copenhagen’s second team are on a high at present overcoming the two best teams in the league, beating both their big brother Copenhagen FC and Midtjylland in the past month.
As tempting as it would be to put up Brondby as a selection for the match, I believe there is a safer selection in the match by taking overs.
69% of OB’s total games have gone over 2.5 goals this season and there isn’t a match so far in 2015 where they have failed to score. With the attacking threat that Brondby offer, they too have found the net on each of their last 6 away games.
With a calculated expected goals total for the match at 2.94, over 2.5 should be comfortable favourite here. It’s not, and at odds of 2.00, should be backed with confidence to go over.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Midtjylland v Viborg Under 2.5 goals at 1.85
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: OB v Brondby Over 2.5 goals at 2.00
Prices correct at time of writing.
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