WTA Linz – Quarter Final – Anna-Lena Friedsam vs Margarita Gasparyan
After two successful recommendations in the ATP this week, I’ve turned to the WTA in an attempt to complete a hat-trick of weekly winners.
Today’s preview comes from the Austrian city of Linz, where quite a low-profile Indoor Hard international event is taking place. A number of decent young prospects have made it to the quarter-finals, and one player in particular I like for today’s handicap betting recommendation.
In my presentation at the MatchBook Traders Conference on Wednesday, I mentioned that Margarita Gasparyan was a player of immense potential based on her numbers in qualifying matches over the last 18 months, and I demonstrated how these statistics can be adjusted to suit main tour matches in the case of small data samples.
Gasparyan responded to my assertions in superb fashion with a three-set victory as a heavy underdog over Camila Giorgi, who herself is a superb player indoors, benefiting from the extra speed that conditions indoors tends to create.
Following this, the Russian, who recently turned 21, takes on Anna-Lena Friedsam in the quarter-finals and I make the current market prices of around 1.85 on Gasparyan some value. A likely explanation for this is two head to head victories for Friedsam, including one in Tashkent last month. I traded this match and remember it being much closer than the 6-4 6-3 scoreline suggested, and Gasparyan only lost seven fewer points in the match. The second match is utterly irrelevant, given that Gasparyan was aged 19 and ranked outside the top 200 (Friedsam was ranked at a similar level to today) when it took place.
Statistically, Gasparyan has superb stats since her debut on the main tour. She’s held serve a solid 69.0% and broken opponents 35.6% (combined 104.6%) and this year these stats have improved to 69.9% and 39.0% respectively (combined 108.9%).
Friedsam’s 2015 stats of 67.3% and 30.6% (combined 97.9%) are significantly worse, and I’m also not convinced of her fitness. She picked up a recent injury in late July in Bad Gastein which ruled her out for over a month and in her defeat to Donna Vekic in the quarter-final of Tashkent she took a medical timeout late in the match. A win over Magdalena Rybarikova in the opening round is solid enough form, but the mediocre clay courter Andreea Mitu in the second round was a test she’d have expected to pass.
Gasparyan is a strong 17-9 on hard or indoor hard court when priced 1.50-1.99 in her career, and a magnificent 11-1 in the last 12 months. In those 11 more recent wins, only one failed to come by at least a two game margin, and two by at least three games.
Considering this, taking the odds against price of 2.11 about Gasparyan -2 games makes sense, and is today’s recommendation.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Back Margarita Gasparyan -2 games at 2.11
Prices correct at time of writing.
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