Midjtylland v Randers & Copenhagen v Hobro
The Danish season hits week 12, and the first of the weekend’s games features a Friday tea time kick off to get the bankroll boosted with Randers make the daunting trip to Midtjylland.
As Southampton and Club Brugge are now able to testify, Midtjylland are the real deal. A philosophy of creating a unit that is fortress like at home with a style of play that not always produces the most attacking football, but delivers results that few can argue with.
In 11 games so far this season, they have still only conceded 3 goals in the league. Adjusted for home bias, it becomes ever more impressive with only a single goal conceded in 540 minutes of play. When you watch their games it becomes obvious why.
A policy of retaining possession and only going for advancement up the pitch when the risk of dispossession is low, creates a style of play similar to that seen in a lot of Italian play. To the non purist, it can also be fairly tedious at times.
That aside, it also makes them relatively predictable. In betting terms, when line makers don’t respect the anomalies enough, that is a good thing. Their under/over 2.5 goals tally for the season currently stands at single game over (a 2-1 win away from home) and ten games under. 45% of their games finish under 1.5 goals.
With 5 of the last 8 Randers fixtures bringing under 2.5 goals, this looks as comfortable an under selection I have seen for a good while, and was expecting something around the 1.55-1.60 mark which even then would be fair.
Thankfully, even when most info screams the contrary, you can still get under 2.5 goals at 1.78 as of Thursday evening. Based on all evidence to hand, this looks an automatic play and long term, these sorts of plays will make you money.
There is quite a wait for the second selection of the Danish weekend as Bottom placed Hobro make the trip to Copenhagen on Sunday for a 5pm UK time start.
Hobro’s overall record is very poor with only 2 points from their last 8 matches. However since their run of 4 straight defeats in August, their performances against Copenhagen, Esbjerg and Randers have all been much improved despite not being rewarded with a win.
Copenhagen, given their class and squad strength relative to the Danish league, are understandably excellent when hosting and currently have the best home record in the league.
However if Hobro’s visit to Copenhagen three weeks ago is any indication, Hobro will be playing eleven at the back. For the most part on that occasion, it was effective and although Hobro had few chances to speak of, their negative set up led to most of Copenhagen’s efforts were speculative, mainly through frustration. In the end, a single goal was enough to win the game for Copenhagen.
Expect more of the same on Sunday with Hobro looking to keep it tight for at least an hour and attempt to remain competitive for as long as possible.
My calculations had an expected goal tally of 2.2 for the game so with under 2.5 goals being available at odds against (2.20 at time of writing), this is the best angle into the match.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Midjtylland v Randers – Under 2.5 goals at 1.78
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Copenhagen v Hobro – Under 2.5 goals at 2.20
Prices correct at time of writing.
By @ChrisOgle2.
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