Switzerland v Poland – Stade Geoffroy Guichard at 14:00 live on
The knockout stages of Euro 2016 kick off this Saturday with Switzerland facing Poland in the last 16 at the Stade Geoffroy Guichard stadium in Saint-Etienne. A win for either side in this last 16 clash would mark their first ever quarter final appearance in the European Championships and it’s the Polish who head into the match as favourites.
Poland were seen as one of the dark horses of the tournament despite never previously winning a match at the finals of a European Championship. They were impressive in qualifying, losing just one match, finishing runners up to world champions Germany by a single point. They were the highest scorers with 33 goals, and in Robert Lewandowski, they have one of Europe’s most in-form strikers. However, the goals didn’t come as freely in their 3 group matches.
The White Eagles managed just 2 goals, defeating Northern Ireland and the Ukraine both 1-0 and drawing with Germany 0-0, in arguably the most boring match in the tournament so far. They have registered just 7 shots on target, the 4th lowest in the group stages and the fewest from teams in the last 16.
They do have the best defensive record in the tournament so far though, along with Germany having kept 3 clean sheets and should be confident of another against a misfiring Switzerland side.
The Swiss have also netted just twice in their 3 matches and on paper, against poorer sides than that of Poland. They laboured to a 1-0 win against 10-man Albania and could only manage a 1-1 draw with Romania. They did hold hosts and tournament favourties, France to a 0-0, but need to start taking their chances if they are to progress.
La Nati have recorded 42 attempts on goal, 31% of those being on target, meaning they have one of the lowest conversion rates of teams left in the competition. Against a solid Poland defence, they could struggle on Saturday.
Like Poland though, their strengths lay in defence having conceded just once in the group stages and that was from the penalty spot. They did very well to keep out the French, although misfiring, had scored 4 in their previous 2 matches.
These stats point to a low scoring tight match in which the defences will come out on top. The Asian goals line is set at 1.75 for this one and there is some value in backing Unders at odds against.
Based on their form in the group stages, there isn’t too much that separates the sides but Poland’s 2 wins and draw against the world champions, as well as their form in qualifying, give them the edge. Switzerland do have the players to give any side problems going forward but I think the Polish defence is up to it.
Poland haven’t been firing on all cylinders in attack, but once they click, they are lethal. I expect them to step it up on Saturday and I make them value on the Asian Handicap betting market -0.25 goals.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Poland -0.25 at 2.26 & Under 1.75 at 2.03
Prices correct at time of writing.
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