Hobro v Sonderjyske & Aalborg v Brondby
This Sunday sees another round of fixtures from the Danish Superliga with first up, bottom club Hobro make the trip to Sonderjyske in a 12.30pm kick off.
In this column last week, I was pretty pessimistic about Hobro and fancied them up to get beaten on the road at Esbjerg. They proceeded to be outshot 23 shots to 5 but still walked away with a bonkers 4-4 draw. For most of that game, they looked like they were good for all 3 points racing out to a 4-1 lead but the tide of pressure relented and they had to settle for the solitary point.
Despite the goals, little during that game convinced me they can compete at this level without a large dose of luck helping them along. You can’t rely on shooting at 80% for long and will likely face another barrage of attacks from Jakob Michelsen’s men.
Even though they have a decent 5th place table standing, Sonderjyske have been pretty frustrating in 2015. Stupid errors have cost them points on at least 3 occasions so far this season, including one of the goalkeeping howlers of the season against Aalborg recently. On their day however, they have the ability to get results against most in the league and Hobro should be a nice treat for them.
In their 11 away fixtures this season, Hobro have lost by at least 2 goals in 6 of them. Hobro have also conceded in each of their last 13 matches.
Despite their willingness to have a go, Hobro are nigh on certain to be dumped straight out the Superliga in their first ever season in the top flight in 102 years. I love the fact they never show up with a park the bus mentality but the Superliga is clearly a step too far.
Provided Sonderjyske have the level of efforts expected, they should be able to see off Hobro without too much fuss, and can be backed in the (-0.75) Asian market at 1.95.
Elsewhere in Denmark, the 3rd and 4th placed teams face off as Aalborg make the short trip to face Brondby. Both of these teams come into the match in really decent form with Brondby undefeated in 7 and Aalborg winning 6 of their last 8.
The bookies make Brondby slight favourites but that is probably fair considering their home field advantage, so where the value lies here is in the goals market.
Brondby like to keep things tight at home, especially when facing decent opposition. When up against teams in the top half of the league, 9 of their 11 games have gone under 2.5 goals. This looks by far the strongest trend in the match, with their respectively strong defensive records and Brondby’s patient approach, this looks the one to be on.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Sonderjyske -0.75 at 1.95
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals at 1.95
Prices correct at time of writing.
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