Randers v Sonderjske & Copenhagen v Aalborg
After a week off, the Superliga in Denmark gets back underway with a couple of games of significant interest.
The international break in Denmark couldn’t have come at a better time for Copenhagen. Six games into the season and the likely title challengers find themselves languishing down in 8th place, closer the relegation zone than the European places.
They have been expensive to follow, without a win since the beginning of August and costing followers of this column a few quid a couple of weeks ago against OB of Odense.
In a hair pulling encounter, once again as so often this season, Copenhagen dominated possession with 61% and manage to squander a total of 21 attempts against OB’s 8. It really was a case of woodwork, missed chances and overall bad luck keeping last season’s runners up at bay.
This week Copenhagen host Aalborg, a team having a fair time of things away from home this year with single goal victories over whipping boys Hobro and mid table Aarhus.
Fundamentally, there is no major issue at Copenhagen. They are dominating all games, including when going away to likely champions Midtjylland to be held to a goalless draw. 3 points in 4 games does not reflect in any way how different things could have been, and the line makers are now taking a real chance with Copenhagen setting them as 1.75 favourites.
Had Copenhagen been even remotely more effective in front of goal, then we would be talking about a very different situation and eyeing up Copenhagen as 1.45-1.50 favourites. With Aalborg conceding first in more than two thirds of their games this season, take the value in Copenhagen getting ahead early and pushing home their advantage in the 2nd half to overcome a 1.5 goal handicap at odds of 3.10.
Elsewhere in Denmark on Sunday, Randers host Sonderjyske in a game that looks nicely made up for goals. Albeit of a relatively small sample, there are very few stats pointing to a low scoring affair with these teams relative home and away scoring records combining at a total of 3.05 goals per game. Even extending the same to include last season, an expected mix of 2.82 goals per game would be expected between these two sides.
The line for over 2.5 has been set at odds of 2.20, possibly taking into account the slightly more defensive play in Denmark as opposed to their Nordic neighbours. All things taken into account, this has to be a play for the overs.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Randers v Sonderjyske, Over 2.5 goals at 2.20
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Copenhagen -1.5 at 3.10
Prices correct at time of writing.
By @ChrisOgle2.
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