Midtjylland v Copenhagen & OB v Randers
Week 5 in the Danish Superliga and the 2 big guns of Danish football clash on Friday night as the Black Wolves of Midtjylland host the traditional powerhouse of Danish football, Copenhagen.
Midtjylland, a club that didn’t even exist until 1999, have been a revelation in Danish football, powering away to their biggest success to date in landing the Danish title last season. They gained a reputation for being neigh on impossible to beat at home, netting 48 of a possible 51 points from their matches at the MCH Arena.
Fast forward to 2015 and the Wolves look like they’re in no mood to give up their title, 4 straight wins (2 home and 2 away) with only conceding 2 goals total, neither when on home soil, makes them a formidable force against any team.
If any team might cause them problems, you would expect it to be Copenhagen. A traditionally solid unit, they usually set up in a conservative, some might negative formation when on their travels. Copenhagen did manage to bag 5 goals in 2 away fixtures this season, overcoming 2 of the leagues lesser lights, Esbjerg and Sondjerlland. Midtjylland represent a different threat altogether. The Lions wastefulness against Nordsjaelland last week, a team they would normally expect to brush aside, is a worry for them. Although they were down to 10 men for most of the game, and were able to take the lead, Copenhagen were really hanging on and were lucky to bag a point in the end.
Midtjylland have opened up at 2.55 -0.5 on the Asian Handicap betting market which represents very good value. The combination of their watertight home record with Copenhagens far from stellar away record makes them clear favourites for me, and I was surprised to see the two teams so close in the betting. Take Midtjylland to continue their strong home form.
On Sunday, OB host Randers that screams out for an unders bet. On the face of it, these teams have had an average of just over 3.5 goals per game between them in the handful of games this season. However this is skewed by some pretty unusual events. Randers fought out a 3-3 draw last week after being goalless at the half in a typically cagey and tentative opening. Things got crazy in the 2nd half through a combination of some freak bits of skill and some very poor decision making between the sticks.
Stretch the sample size back to include last season for both team on their relative home and away form, and it tells a very different story. Neither of these teams either scored or conceded more than 20 goals over their 17 fixtures for last season and register an aggregate total of 2.03 goals per game.
Expect a similar story on Sunday and take the under 2.5 goal market at 1.91.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Midtjylland -0.5 @ 2.55
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation OB v Randers – Under 2.5 goals at 1.91
Season to Date: 4pts staked, 4.80pts returned, 0.80pts profit.
Prices correct at time of writing.
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