Atalanta v Dinamo Zagreb
Champions League debutants Atalanta have found it tough going on the European stage this campaign. La Dea have just a single point to their name which they picked up last time out against Manchester City. Amazingly the Nerazzurri still have a glimmer of a chance of qualification given how the fixtures have panned out, although they’d have to win both of their remaining games to have a sniff of the knockout stages.
Gian Piero Gasperini’s outgoing and expansive side have already played their two games against perennial group champions and favourites for the outright win in Manchester City so they have games against Dinamo Zagreb (home) and Shakhtar Donetsk (away) remaining. That in turn means those two opponents still have the Blue Moon to play and would have to take something from those games should they both lose to the Italians. It promises to be a very intriguing last two game weeks should the hosts win here and the Ukranians lose at the Etihad.
Even though they simply have to win, I’m not sure I can trust the hosts at skinny 1.610 quotes given their recent form. The Bergamo Boys have failed to win any of their last five games in all competitions, however it has to be said they’ve played Juventus, Napoli and Manchester City in that run. I think they probably will win here but I’ve been impressed with what I’ve seen of Dinamo this season and they can play their part in an entertaining affair.<
Instead of getting involved in the outrights I’m much more inclined to take a goals-based angle of attack and we can back over 2.75 on the goal line at 1.750 and it looks worthy of a punt. The Croatians can call on the likes of Dani Olmo, Bruno Petkovic and Mislav Orsic who are more than capable of bloodying a few noses.
This group has seen a barrage of goals and we’ve profited pretty much every gameweek when backing goals. With this selection we gain a half stakes profit should exactly 3 goals be scored and a full stakes win should any more be netted. Zagreb UCL games are seeing an average of 4 goals per game and that tallies up with the underlying numbers, their games’ xG average out at 4.1 goals per game. Atalanta games are also averaging 4 goals per game with their xG slightly under at 3.8, nevertheless these are mammoth numbers and it shows that the high scoring nature of this group is no fluke. Throw in the dynamics of this game and we could get another shootout.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.75 Goals at 1.750
Real Madrid v Paris Saint Germain
The game of the day surely comes at the Bernabeu as European juggernauts Real Madrid and PSG go head to head. PSG are already through whereas Real look like they should make it through to the knockout stages with consummate ease, PSG currently have maximum points whereas Real Madrid have taken 7 points from a possible 12. With the other sides in Galatasaray and Club Brugge failing to win a game thus far it has been a breeze compared to what it could’ve been for the big guns.
Mauro Icardi has been the man of the moment for Les Parisiens in this competition, the Argentine international has notched 4 in 4 but with the return to fitness of Neymar his position is under threat. Thomas Tuchel could start with Neymar, Icardi and Kylian M’Bappe in a front 3 but that would mean the reliable Angel Di Maria would have to make way.
PSG had plenty of injuries to their star attacking threats earlier in the season and Tuchel voted for pragmatism over style and was completely vindicated in doing so after beefing up the midfield in the summer with Ander Herrera and Gana Gueye coming in to give a solid base. Now they have their flair players back they’ve been scoring much more often, they could get a few goals here against a far from watertight Real backline.
As hosts, Los Blancos will be expected to take the game to anyone by their demanding fans and that could make this an open encounter. One thing the Galacticos are good for at the moment is goals. In recent weeks they’ve smashed 3 past Sociedad, 4 past Eibar and Granada, 5 past Leganes and 6 past Gala on matchday 4. Eden Hazard is starting to settle and play some good stuff now and Karim Benzema is once again earning rave reviews from his team mates.
Goals has to be the order of the day here with the attacking potency on both sides. We can back over 3 asian goals at a fair 1.870 and I’d be surprised if you lost money backing this selection. If more than 3 goals are scored then we secure a winner but if exactly 3 are scored we get the safety net of our stake back, the only way we lose is if 2 or fewer goals go in.
Real Madrid have been synonymous with goals in this competition. Incredibly, a mammoth 34 of their last 38 games in the champions league have seen 3 or more goals scored, with a large proportion of those seeing 4 or more. What’s more, the last 4 head to head meetings between these two would’ve seen at least 3 goals. Hopefully this one lives up to its billing.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 3.00 goals at 1.870
Lokomotiv Moscow v Bayer Leverkusen
I’m once again attacking the goals market as Lokomotiv Moscow host German outfit Bayer Leverkusen in what looks like a must win for both sides. The pair both have won once and lost thrice and that means they’re both are trailing 2й placed Atletico Madrid by 4 points, a draw therefore isn’t really acceptable for both teams and that means we should get entertainment.
Instinctively I thought Leverkusen were too short here and was considering the 1.820 on Lokomotiv with a +0.5 start on the asian handicap. However, after looking more in-depth at the respective form of the pair it does make more sense. The hosts have won just 2 of their last 7 at home and only ended a five game winless run with a tight 3-2 win over a poor Tambov side this weekend. Bayer on the other hand have lost just 1 of their last 6 in all competitions and are starting to pick up with an impressive win at Wolfsburg in their last game on the road.
I’m happy therefore to leave the outright market alone and gobble up the 1.920 on over 2.5 goals. Die Werkself have an abundance of attacking talent and have an attack-minded coach in Peter Bosz. The much-coveted Kai Havertz is the gem in the crown but he is rated as a doubt here, That being said the likes of Kevin Volland, Karim Bellarabi, Paulinho and Lucas Alario bring alternative forward threats. On the other side, the Parovozy have the in-form Aleksander Miranchuk to call upon who has 2 in 2 in this competition. Fedor Smolov and Grezegorz Krycrowiak and Eder can all contribute too.
The hosts have seen over 2.5 land in 3 of their 4 champions league games and they’ve conceded in 8 of their last 9 games and with defensive injuries to Vedran Corluka and Boris Rotenberg they look likely to concede here. Peter Bosz’s teams rarely keep clean sheets given their expressive style of play and given the need for a win there could be gaps on the pitch for their opposition to exploit. Goals look the way to go in the early kick off.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.50 goals at 1.910
Preview By: @TomLove_18