Scotland v Poland – Hampden Park at 19:45 live on Sky Sports 2
Scotland host Poland tomorrow night at Hampden Park needing at least a point to stand any chance of keeping their qualification hopes for Euro 2016 alive. Poland, meanwhile, can secure a place in France next summer with a win if Germany avoid defeat to Ireland, guaranteeing them at least 2nd spot in Group D.
Scotland come in to the game on the back of two defeats, at home to Germany and away to Georgia. They have now picked up just 1 point in their last 3 qualification matches and their only hope of making it to France next year is now through a play-off place. That means finishing third, currently held by the Rep. of Ireland who are 4 points ahead of Gordon Strachan’s men.
If Ireland win either of their last 2 matches Scotland can’t qualify, but with the Irish playing Germany and Poland, the Scots will be hopeful that the Boys in Green will slip up.
If Scotland fail to win, they will be relying on Germany beating Ireland so I expect them to go all out attack looking for the victory. Their record against Poland is good, drawing with them away from home 2-2 earlier in the campaign and defeating them in an away friendly in March 2014 1-0.
Poland come into the match having been beaten in their last away fixture to Germany 3-1 but bounced back with an 8-1 win over Gibraltar last time out. A victory should all but see them through, but draw or lose and they will have a tricky last match against Ireland on Sunday.
Their impressive campaign so far has seen them score 29 goals in their 8 matches, the highest total of any team in qualifying. 10 of them goals have come from the prolific Robert Lewandowski who has also scored 16 for Bayern Munich in 9 matches domestically this season. He will no doubt prove to be a handful for the Scottish defence.
Poland edge favourtism in this one at 2.70 with Scotland priced at 2.90 and the draw at 3.25. The Asian Handicap betting line is +/- 0 and the 2.07 available on the host looks appealing considering their record against the visitors. However, I think there is more value on the goals markets.
Six of Poland 8 qualifying matches have seen 3 or more goals. Whilst only 50% of Scotlands’ games have had Over 2.5, their 3 matches against Germany and Poland all saw 3 or more. The 2.15 on offer on Over 2.25 on the Asian line looks like a great bit of value and is my recommendation for what should be an entertaining match.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Over 2.25 goals at 2.15
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