ATP Challenger Sacramento – Second Round – Daniel Brands vs Sekou Bangoura
With the ATP and WTA Tours continuing in Asia, and most of the matches starting early, as well as there being sparse value on offer today, we move away from the glamour of Beijing and Tokyo and find a humble $100,000 Challenger event on hard court in Sacramento, USA, for today’s handicap betting opportunity.
German Daniel Brands is somewhat a rarity on the return-dominated Challenger Tour – a generic ‘big server’. His numbers are very serve orientated, with a very high consistent service hold percentage and a very low percentage for breaking opponents. Career hard court numbers at this level of 84.4% holds and 13.3% breaks on hard or indoor hard court illustrate this.
It also is an accurate reflection of his mediocrity (just 97.7% combined at this level) which can be exploited today against opponent Bangoura, who is starting to find his feet at this level after some consistently decent results in qualifying. Bangoura’s win over top 100 regular Dustin Brown last week in Tiburon should be a real confidence boost, and he’s reached the last 16, quarter-final and semi-final in three of his last four Challenger events.
Brands, who starts at around 1.45, was priced at 1.72 by my model, and a look through his handicap betting historical data shows he struggles to dominate opponents even when a strong favourite.
Priced between 1.20 and 1.49 in his career on hard court, he has only covered the -3.5 game line twice in nine matches, and if we include indoor hard court to boost the sample further he has done so on just 9/26 occasions.
Given that opponent Bangoura has earned five wins on hard or indoor hard court this year when priced over 3.00 from eleven outings, it is clear that the American wild-card should not fear Brands in any way, shape or form, and he can at least keep this match close enough to cover the 3.5 game handicap line.
Tennis Handicap Recommendation: Back Sekou Bangoura +3.5 games at 1.99
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