ATP Challenger Sacramento – Second Round – Blaz Kavcic vs Marcos Giron
Today’s preview again focuses on the Challenger Tour with yesterday’s handicap betting recommendation of Sekou Bangoura falling very unluckily short – he created eight break points on the Brands serve in the first set (to Brands’ zero) before losing the tiebreak, and collapsing in the second set, with his last two service games of the set being broken.
However we remain in California tonight and I’m looking towards the Slovenian eighth seed, Blaz Kavcic, to get past youngster Marcos Giron tonight in relatively facile fashion at around 7pm UK time.
Kavcic is currently available around the 1.50 mark, with my projected hold model making a price of 1.30 more appropriate. He got past Philip Bester in straight sets in the opening round, whilst Giron has played ten sets since the weekend, having qualified and recovering from losing the first set in two of his qualifiers against Fritz Wolmarans and Adrien Bossel.
Further buoying my confidence on this position is the superb record of Kavcic as a favourite on hard court this year – he is 19-4 in 2015 in this subset of his matches, so it’s reasonable to assume the market often under-rates him against worse opponents.
In the best of three set matches from that sample he also has a superb record of covering the -3 game handicap line, covering it 13 times, failing to cover on four occasions, and having five pushes.
Considering this -3 game line is available at an attractive 1.91, it is very difficult to see a situation where Kavcic wins and goes under the line, given just one win – against Daniel Munoz De La Nava in Shenzhen in March – didn’t at least push the handicap line, and this is today’s recommendation.
Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation: Back Blaz Kavcic -3 games at 1.91