Burnley v Bournemouth
I was one of many people who expected Burnley to go down this season, after many years playing some pretty dire stuff but remaining in the Premier League under Sean Dyche. However, they have defied expectations again and, after some superb recent results, have climbed up to 11го.
I also backed Bournemouth to finally suffer relegation and that is looking more likely, with Eddie Howe’s side just two points above the drop zone and seriously struggling for form.
The Cherries have lost nine of their last 11 away games in all competitions, with a smash and grab 1-0 win over Chelsea their only victory in that run. Admittedly, injuries haven’t helped, with key defenders and goalscorer Callum Wilson suffering long-term setbacks at the start of the season but, even with them back available, they are still struggling to drag themselves away from the bottom three.
I mentioned Burnley’s recent run of good form but they have been pretty consistent all season, especially against those sides below them in the table. Against the sides currently in the bottom half of the league, they have picked up 23 points from a possible 33, which doesn’t bode well when Eddie Howe returns to the club he was in charge from 2011 to 2012.
You can back Burnley to win this one at 2.075 and it’s a price I can definitely get on board with. This is essentially a mid-table team against a relegation candidate, so to get just over Evens is, in my opinion, a superb price.
The home team come into this off the back of a 2-1 win away at Southampton and I think they can continue their decent form against a side who have had two weeks to mull over a 2-1 defeat to Sheffield United at the start of the month.
1×2 Betting Recommendation: Burnley to win at 2.075
Crystal Palace v Newcastle
These are two teams that have both made me profit when I’ve backed against goals in their games so, when they meet on Saturday lunchtime, there was only one angle I could take.
For starters, when you look at both side’s attacks, you fail to see any real goal threat. Across both squads, the top scorer is Palace striker Jordan Ayew who has netted six goals. Christian Benteke is severely lacking in confidence and Wilfried Zaha has failed to impress this season. I’ve spoken in previous pieces about how poor Newcastle’s attack is, and I fully believe that Joelinton could be one of the worst centre-forwards the Premier League has ever seen.
Palace and Newcastle’s forwards this season have only managed 23 goals combined in all competitions, with both team’s defenders have scored 17 goals this season, to put things in comparison.
Stats-wise, Palace are the lowest scoring team in the league and Newcastle have only scored one more than Roy Hodgson’s side, netting just 47 goals in 52 games, combined. They are also the two teams with the worst xG (Expected Goals) in the entire division, which is a deeper way to look into how they’re faring going forward.
This is a no-brainer bet for me and, although the goals line has been set pretty low, I have no doubt that these two sides will struggle to find the net again. You can back under 2 Asian goals at 1.980 and that’s a bigger price than I was expecting – I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0.
The only way this bet will lose is if we see over 2.5 goals, with 2 goals giving us a refund and 0 or 1 goals giving us a full return.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Under 2.00 at 1.980
Sheffield United v Brighton
I’m actually a huge fan of Brighton and the work Graham Potter has done since taking over, but I’m going to oppose them on Saturday
Who would’ve thought that Sheffield United would be competing for Champions League football this season? Most predicted them to get relegated, many said they’d finish bottom, and some even claimed they’d finish the season with the lowest points total in Premier League history. Chris Wilder has done a superb job and I’m going to back them to continue their quest for European football.
They’ve lost just three of their last ten home games, losing to the top two, Liverpool and Manchester City, along with suffering a blip against lowly Newcastle. They’ve won five and drawn two of the other seven of those games in that run, which included a win against Arsenal and a draw against Manchester United.
Brighton, on the other hand, have got a turgid away record. Dating back to the start of 2018, they’ve won just four league away games, losing 25 on the road in that time. Their possession style of play under Potter certainly hasn’t helped that form and I expect it to continue on Saturday.
Potter actually got the double over Sheffield United when he was in charge of Swansea last season, with Oli McBurnie scoring two of the three goals across those fixtures. That may have been one of the reasons Wilder decided to sign him in the summer, but I don’t expect any of that to be a factor in this one.
I think the 1.940 available on the home side to win this game is a huge price and I expect that to be massively cut in before kick-off, so I’d be backing it as soon as possible!
1×2 Betting Recommendation: Sheff Utd to win at 1.940
Предварительный просмотр: @AdamGoodwin
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