Frosinone v Atalanta – Stadio Benito Stirpe at 11:30 GMT live at Eleven Sports
Atalanta bagged a sole success from their opening eight Serie A encounters this season (W1-D3-L4) but La Dea have bounced back superbly since the October international break to deliver seven victories from 12 outings (W7-D1-L3) to move into a strong position just outside the European qualification berths.
Gian Piero Gasperini’s group smashed Sassuolo 6-2 on the road last time out as a Josip Ilicic hat-trick inspired the Bergamo boys. It means Atalanta have now scored at least twice in seven of their 10 away days, and based on their results alone from games as guests, the visitors would be ranked fourth in Italy.
La Dea are living up to their impressive performance data too. The away side sit inside the top-six in Serie A for Shots In The Box ratio, Expected Goals ratio, as well as Expected Goals from open play ratio, whilst no top-tier team in Italy are firing in more attempts from inside the box than Gasperini’s gang.
Frosinone out of their depth
Frosinone’s resurgence appears to have stalled. The newly-promoted club shipped 16 goals in their opening six matches, failing to score in each, although a switch from 5-3-2 to a 3-4-3 improved the club’s fortunes briefly. The Canaries went unbeaten in four (W1-D3-L0) but have since collected only three points from a possible 21 (W0-D3-L4) to sit marooned in the relegation zone.
Moreno Longo’s men would be rock-bottom if not for a points deduction for fellow strugglers Chievo and come into this clash having lost eight of 10 10 winless encounters with top-half sides as they have conceded an average of 2.7 goals per game across these, grabbing three strikes of their own.
The home side are averaging only 0.35 xG per-game from open play, fewer than 20 touches in the penalty area and six attempts from inside the penalty area. Such statistics are likely to put them under major threat against Atalanta and so Longo’s charges are best opposed here.
What’s more, Frosinone have problems down both ends of the field as centre-back Marco Capuano and top scorer Camillo Ciano are suspended for this clash, and with their next highest scorer for this season stuck on just two goals, Atalanta are short favourites with good reason.
Back the visitors with a -1 Asian Handicap start at 1.70 and we’ll see our stake returned should Atalanta only win by a solitary strike.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Atalanta -1.00 at 1.700
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