Burnley v Newcastle
In their last three games, Sean Dyche’s Burnley have conceded 11 goals and picked up zero points. On Saturday, they welcome Newcastle to Turf Moor hoping to end their awful run of form. Newcastle are unbeaten in their last three games and have found themselves shooting up the table. Steve Bruce is proving his critics wrong and will be aiming for another three points in Lancashire.
Despite many people thinking Burnley are a negative side who don’t concede or score many, they’ve proven that wrong so far this season. There’s been an average of 2.5 goals in their league games this season, and their recent results have seen them win 3-0 twice but also lose 4-1 and 5-0. That heavy 5-0 defeat was to Tottenham in their last game out and I feel like Dyche will want to go back to basics against Newcastle here and stop conceding goals.
That shouldn’t be too difficult against a misfiring Newcastle side. Yes, they’ve found some form recently, but I think a lot of that is to do with the form of winger Allan Saint-Maximin. The Frenchman has been a key player for the Magpies over the last few weeks, scoring his first goal for the club a couple of weeks ago.
However, Saint-Maximin picked up a hamstring injury in their 2-1 win over Southampton last weekend and will be out for a few weeks, which is a huge blow to Bruce’s side. I certainly don’t trust Joelinton and Miguel Almiron to find the goals for them and I think Saint-Maximin’s absence will have a huge impact on Newcastle.
I don’t fancy goals here and, if pushed, would say Burnley might scrape this 1-0. They will be keen to stop the glut of goals they’ve conceded, and Newcastle won’t trouble them too much without their key man. You can back under 2.25 goals here at 2.010, which would see us bag a winner if there are zero or one goals, and a half win if there are two in the match.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Under 2.25 goals at 2.010
Wolves v Tottenham
Wolves have a Europa League game on Thursday and it seems as though they are set to rest the majority of their key players with them already qualified. And, to be honest, their hectic Europa League schedule hasn’t affected them as much as I thought it would. They started the season slightly slowly but have a hit a really good run of form recently and currently sit in seventh.
Tottenham also had a European game during the week and, similarly, rested key players. They went down 3-1 to Bayern Munich but they showed a good account of themselves, and summer signing Ryan Sessegnon finally started to make his mark at the club with a goal and a good performance.
It’s well-known that Nuno Espirito Santos’ side had a good record against the top six sides in the league last season. Of the 12 games they played against Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United, they lost four, won four and drew four. This season they have a similarly good record, they’ve four games against those sides, winning one, losing one and drawing two. That win was a 2-0 win away at Manchester City, and they’ll be hoping for a similarly impressive result here.
Spurs’ form has improved since Jose Mourinho took over but they still conceded too many goals. They beat a poor Burnley side 5-0 in their last league game but they’ve let in eight goals in Mourinho’s six games. Their recent away form is also worrying. They’ve won just one of their last 14 away league, losing 10 of those. Wolves are currently above Tottenham in the table and I think they’re still being underestimated in the market.
They’re available at 3.000 to win the game but I’m going to take them with a +0.25 start which is available at 1.960. Nuno knows how to set his sides up in this game and I’m confident they can get at least a point. A draw would give us a half payout and a win a full payout.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Wolves +0.25 at 1.970
Crystal Palace v Brighton
For a reason many people do not know, this one is as classed as ‘derby’, despite the two grounds being over 40 miles apart. However, it means a lot to the fans and they’ll be looking for a win under the lights on Monday night.
Both these teams have started the season better than they probably anticipated. Crystal Palace are currently in the top half of the table in 10th and are only two points behind Manchester United in fifth. Brighton, who many tipped for relegation this season, sit in 12th and are just three points behind the Eagles.
Palace do head into this one unbeaten in three games, although they could only muster a draw against bottom side Watford last weekend. They won their last two games before that against Burnley and away at Bournemouth with ten men, backing up their lofty place in the table with results. However, both of those sides are in awful form at the moment and the underlying data isn’t as impressive as their performances would suggest. The Expected Points (xPTS) table has them 17th and, with their overreliance on the counter-attack, I can see them struggling here.
Although Brighton are also slightly overperforming compared to their xPTS, their performances are far more encouraging. A somewhat comfortable win over Arsenal, backed up by a point against a strong Wolves side showed their quality. Their summer signings are also starting to really click, with Adam Webster, Neal Maupay and Aaron Mooy all impressing in recent games.
I don’t think there’s too much between these two sides, but I think I have to get Brighton onside when looking at the prices. They’re 3.00 to win the game but I’ll take them 0.0 on the Asian handicap which is 2.080. I think they’ve been the better side of the two this season and, after that recent win away at Arsenal, they’ll take confidence to go to Selhurst Park and pick up at least a draw, which would see our money returned. A win for the Seagulls would give us a full payout.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Brighton +0.00 – 2.080
Preview by: @AdamGoodwin
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