Crystal Palace v Man City – Selhurst Park at 20:00 live on Sky Sports 1
Man City travel to Selhurst Park tonight and are in desperate need for 3 points. City now sit 4th in the Premier League, the lowest position they’ve been in this campaign and with Man Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea all winning at the weekend, there is even more pressure on Pellegrini. Not only do they need a win to keep their title hopes alive, but they are running the risk of finishing outside the top 3, costing them an automatic Champions League spot.
Palace on the other hand continue to improve under Alan Pardew. He has earned 19 points from a possible 30 and moved them away from a possible relegation battle into mid-table security. He may have his sights on a top half finish and a win tonight would put him 3 points behind Stoke in 10th.
The Eagles don’t have a great record against the Citizens, losing their last 7 to the Champions. They go in to tonight though on good form, winning 3 from their last 4 league games and will be looking to inflict a 3rd successive away defeat on City.
They’d probably rather be playing at the Etihad though as their away form is far superior than that at Selhurst Park. Palace have only won 4 league matches at home this season and earned 15 points. They’ve won 5 on the road and have taken 21 points from 15 matches.
I know City’s form isn’t great, 15 points from a possible 30 and losing their last 2 away matches, but I think the 1.72 available on them to win is generous. We’ve seen them slip up on a few occasions this year when they could have closed the gap on Chelsea and didn’t take advantage. With a fully fit squad though and their head to head record against Palace, I have no doubt Man City will win tonight.
When winning on the road, City have won by 2 or more goals 7 times from 8. So if you fancy them to win, as I do, the 2.12 on offer for City -1 in the Asian Handicap market is better value than backing them to win. They have also beaten Palace by 2 or more in 3 of their last 5 meetings.
There is also some value on the Over/Under market with Over 2.5 priced up at 1.83. Palace play some nice counter attacking football under Pardew but this could play into City’s hands if Pellegrini goes for 2 up top instead of putting an extra man in midfield. With 57% of the Eagles home matches and 60% of City’s away matches seeing 3 or more goals, it’s definitely a bit of value.
Asian Handicap Recommendation: Man City -1 @ 2.12
Prices correct at time of writing.
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