The 2016 European Champions pitted against the 2012 European Champions. We have our first heavyweight clash of the 2018 FIFA World Cup, as 19.46% of the ‘Outright’ market share goes toe-to-toe. Portugal seemingly ‘bored’ their way to the European title in 2016, with three wins and four draws which was enough to see them lift the trophy. An element which has been reflected in the ‘Outright’ market, as Portugal currently only possess 3.84% of the market share. Alarmingly low in comparison with Group B favourites and counterparts, Spain. Who at this current time possess 15.62% of the total market share.
Portugal v SpainThe market has currently attached an implied probability of 20.16% with Fernando Santos’ side which excluding their most recent friendly against Belgium, will be the smallest implied probability Portugal have possessed since their game with France in October of 2014. In which the Portuguese were sent off with an implied probability of 18.51%.
So how have Portugal fared, when playing the roll of the ‘underdog’?
By analysing Portugal’s historic market data, we can observe how Portugal have behaved under similar market conditions. As a result, highlighting any inefficiencies that may be present in the current market.
Belgium v PortugalEngland v PortugalFrance v PortugalThe similarities appear evident in the market data that occurred during England versus Portugal and the current market state. Portugal closed with an implied probability of 22.02% when they faced England, similar to that of their current implied probability (20.16%). In correlation with the ‘Match Odds’ market, the Asian handicap line has been set at -0.5/+0.5. Which based upon previous market data, does appear to be rather generous (France versus Portugal).
However, if we are able to analyse Spain’s historic market record in a similar fashion to that presented. We may be able to identify whether the current prices available are in fact efficient.
Spain v ArgentinaSpain v EnglandSpain v NetherlandsThe current market possesses similarities that are clearly evident from the three examples, within Spain’s market data history. The market sent Spain off with an implied probability of 52.91% when they faced off against Argentina, earlier in the year. Identical to the market’s current perception with their game against Portugal. However, when you observe the implied probability Spain possessed against the likes of; Argentina and England. The current price of 1.89 against Portugal doesn’t appear to align with the current ‘Outright’ market, which has attached implied probabilities of 10.00% and 5.40% with Argentina and England. Both of which possess greater chances of lifting the World Cup than Portugal. However, Spain are currently the same price as when they faced Argentina and at a greater price than when they faced England, supposedly two sides that possess greater chances of being crowned world champions.
So is the current price on Spain, right or wrong?
Personally, based upon the evidence presented, the current price on Spain does appear to be inflated. I would be expecting Spain to settle in the region of 1.7x. Therefore, an opportunity to be on the correct side of the market has been presented. Similarly, the current line in the ‘Over/Under’ market does appear to be correct. However, the 2.09 which is currently available does appear rather abrupt, in comparison with previous historic price point data.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Spain -0.50 at 2.130
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.25 Goals at 2.200
Preview by: @gscurftrader.
Are you a fan of the Les Blues? Then make sure to check our preview for their first match in the World Cup: France v Australia.