(Quote from the analysis of Japan versus Senegal)
“Poland were just edged out by Senegal in-what was a game that didn’t go without controversy, after Shukrallah Nawaf Abdulla Ghayyath allowed M’Baye Niang to re-enter proceedings sharper than the Polish team were expecting. As a result, allowing Niang a clear run at Jan Bednarek, who appeared blindsided by the angle in-which the Senegalese striker was allowed to rejoin proceedings and with Wojciech Szczesny racing towards the action, M’Baye Niang simply played the ball by the Polish goalkeeper leaving any empty net and in the process securing all three points for Aliou Cisse’s side”.
Colombia began their 2018 FIFA World Cup campaign in disastrous fashion, after just three minutes Carlos Sanchez was dismissed after handling the ball and preventing the Japanese from going ahead. However, Sanchez’s actions were not justified as only minutes later, Shinji Kagawa converted the resulting penalty. Although Colombia caused Japan issues in the opening forty-five minutes, the pace that the Japanese kept proved to be to much for the ten men of Colombia. After their loss to Japan and Senegal beating Poland, Jose Pekerman has no room for error in his remaining two games.
Poland v Colombia
The current perception attached with the ’Match Odds’ market appears to indicate Poland possess an implied probability of 28.57%, with the weight of the money within the market favouring Colombia. In addition, the current perception attached with Poland can be observed throughout their market history, with a number of occasions in-which the market assumed ‘Bialo-czerwoni’ to possess an implied probability in the region of 28.57% with encounters against Denmark, Portugal, and Ireland all possessing similarities throughout the ‘Match Odds’ market.
So how can we benefit from the markets current perception?
By analyzing Poland’s previous encounters and utilizing their historic market data, determining whether any discrepancies exist within the current prices available will be identifiable.
Denmark v Poland
Poland v Portugal
Ireland v Poland The similarities between the markets are noticeable, with an early indication that the current implied probability attached with the ‘Under 2.5’ goals line may be inadequate. The average implied probability extracted from the ‘Under 2.5’ goals line indicates an average closing price of 1.60, emphasizing the markets current perception of 1.86 and demonstrating what may be an early indication that there are clear discrepancies within the market. In addition with previous closing highs of 1.86 and previous closing lows of 1.41, the positives to having the ‘Under 2.5’ goals line on side at 1.86 appears obvious.
If by delving deeper into the data records validates the information extracted from Poland’s previous encounters, we should have the resources to end up on the correct side of the market.
Therefore by analyzing Colombia’s market data, the prices extracted will aid our efforts in determining whether the data extracted from Poland’s previous encounters will withstand the potential negatives.
USA v Colombia
Bolivia v Colombia
Colombia v Uruguay
Colombia have been associated with a similar market perception on a number of occasions, sporting an implied probability in the region of 45.04%. Yet the market that appears to possess the most potential is that of the ‘Over/Under’ with a current implied probability of 53.76%, the weight of money seems happily situated with the ‘Under 2.5’ goals line and rightly so. The correlation with the ‘Over/Under’ market has resulted in the ‘Under 2.5’ goals line closing with an average price of 1.69. Therefore with the market currently offering 1.86, the potential positives seem to significantly outweigh any negatives that may occur prior to kickoff and given the complexities within Group H, it’s a game neither side can afford to lose.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals at 1.990
Preview by: @gscurftrader.
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