October 24, 2016

Texans @ Broncos NFL Handicap Betting Previews Week 7 – Tuesday 25th October by @gscurftrader

Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos –  Sports Authority Field, Denver at 01:30 live on Sky Sports 1

The market’s current perception reflects an implied probability of 77.51% for the Super Bowl 50 victors. The Broncos have been attached with implied probabilities of; 41.32%, 71.42%, 36.49%, 61.72%, 65.35% and 62.11% through the opening six game weeks of the season. The current filter in which Denver are situated, has occurred once this season at Sport Authority Field, which resulted in a 34-20 over the Indianapolis Colts.

Analysing how home teams have performed this season from within the filter in which Denver are located, can provide an overview of how this Monday night game may conclude. As can be expected, with home teams possessing implied probabilities of between 66.66% and 99.00% a significant probability will be generated for Denver. In fact 79.31% of home teams within these parameters have resulted in a host victory, this season. Subsequently equating to odds of 1.29 demonstrating a slight underestimation on the Broncos, from the market’s current perception.

As a result of Denver possessing a substantial probability of obtaining victory. The handicap line has been set at -/+7.5, which appears to be of standard issue, when handling home teams with such significant probabilities. However, although it may be of standard issue the data collected from these games indicate that this may not be as straight forward as the market’s perception implies. The -7.5 spread has been covered in 44.83% of games this season, equating to odds of 2.23. The market is of the belief that Denver warrant the -7.5 spread, awarding an implied probability of 50.00%. Making the comparison between historic data and the market’s perception, indicates an overvalued opinion of Denver’s ability to cover the -7.5 handicap.

The Broncos have averaged 23.30 points this season, an average which stocks may well rise after this Monday Night Football edition. Hence, home teams possessing an implied probability of between 66.66% and 99.00% have been directly involved in games resulting in +42.5 total points in 65.52% of games this season. Recycling that data upon the market provides an intriguing entry point, with a considerable amount of value to be obtained. As the market’s current perception presents an implied probability of 47.16%, equating to odds of 2.12.

Houston appeared to be gift wrapped their latest victory against the Colts, with that being said they went out and took what was being presented to them. The Texans are currently 4-2 with ex Denver Bronco, Brock Osweiler returning to Sports Authority Field. Houston have been attached with implied probabilities of; 65.78%, 51.02%, 51.54%, 66.22%, 28.57% and 57.80%. The sole time in which Houston have been dogs was on the road in Minnesota, suffering a 31-13 loss. Osweiler and company are currently attached with an implied probability of 23.80%, which is the lowest of the season. As a result paying a huge complement to Denver, as Houston have already faced Kansas City (4-2), New England (5-1) and Minnesota (5-1). Subsequently, locating the Texans within the filter of travelling teams possessing an implied probability of 33.22% or less. Therefore not coming as a surprise, that teams within this filter have struggled this season with only 18.52% of teams obtaining victory.

Although Houston possess a stunted probability, an increase is evident when the handicap line is introduced. As a result of the current handicap line, the Texans probability of covering the spread is 48.15% or odds of 2.08. However, in comparison with the market’s implied probability of 49.50% the handicap market isn’t a situation in which I want to be involved with. Particularly as neither side are situated within a filter that generates data, which implements confidence.

The Texans have averaged 18.00 points per game this season, similar with that of Denver an average which may see an increase. This is why, travelling teams situated within the filter that Houston are located has resulted in +42.5 total points in 62.96% of games this season. Therefore by combining the two sources extracted from both Denver and Houston, generates an overall probability of 64.24% as a result equating to odds of 1.55. Reprocessing this data onto the market, immediately draws a flag. As the market is currently presenting an implied probability of 47.16%, somewhat of a stretch from the data processed this season. Therefore for this reason I can recommend +42.5 total points at 2.12, for this prime-time slot.

Handicap Betting Recommendation: Over 42.5 Total Points at 2.12

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @gscurftrader.

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