October 29, 2016

NFL Data Analysis: Week 8 – Sunday 30th October by @gscurftrader

Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts – Sunday 17:00

An intriguing market has been presented with Indianapolis possessing an implied probability of 44.24%. Through the opening seven weeks Indianapolis have possessed implied probabilities of; 55.86% , 28.98%, 53.76%, 54.05%, 67.11%, 43.10% and 37.31%. The more significant probabilities coming against teams such as; Detroit, San Diego, Jacksonville and Chicago. As a result presenting a specific level into which the Colts warrant the dominant probability. However with the market’s current perception, Indianapolis possess a similar implied probability as was attached in week six while travelling to Houston. Comparatively, in week two Kansas City travelled to Houston with an implied probability of 49.50%. Which, on face value indicates Indianapolis may be undervalued and warrant further respect.

Analysing how home teams have performed within the same parameters as Indianapolis can provide a stable overview into what may occur in this match-up. Incredibly from the data extracted from this season, 81.82% of host teams with implied probabilities between 40.00% and 45.24% have obtained victory. The Colts have averaged 27.7 points per game this season, which has produced a 3-4 record with victories over San Diego, Chicago and Tennessee. As a result of the data being made evident, there are early signs of substantial value on Indianapolis in both the moneyline and handicap markets.

Compatible with the data extracted from the moneyline market, additional data weighs heavily in favour of the Colts maintaining the +2.5 handicap with identical figures transcending from the moneyline market to the handicap market. Resulting in an undervalued perception from the market, similar to that of San Diego, Detroit and Miami in previous weeks.

Correspondingly with Indianapolis, the market’s perception on Kansas City is evident by the implied probability of 56.49%. Therefore, situating the Chiefs within the parameters of travelling teams possessing an implied probability of between 52.62% and 66.22%. Which on a more in-depth analysis has not been welcoming for travelling teams, with only 40.00% of them leaving with a victory. Kansas City come into this game with a record of 4-2, which amazingly only positions them in 3rd place in the AFC West with high flying Oakland at 5-2 and Super Bowl 50 victors Denver also at 5-2. The Chiefs have possessed implied probabilities of; 72.99%, 49.50%, 57.47%, 36.76%, 54.34% and 72.46%. As a result making Kansas City 4-0 as favourites this year, with victories over San Diego, New York Jets, Oakland, and New Orleans. However by combining the two sources of data the Chiefs appear to possess a probability of 29.09%, equating to odds of 3.43. For this purpose a substantial amount of value can be obtained by siding with the Indianapolis Colts.

Utilizing the markets perception on Kansas City, can produce an intriguing insight into the handicap market. Therefore, clarifying the data extracted from Indianapolis and generating a stable base in which to work from. Travelling teams within the same parameters as Kansas City are positioned have covered the -2.5 spread in only 40.00% of games. Therefore bolstering the data which has been presented and aiding the theory of Indianapolis possessing the most lucrative entry point, on both markets.NFL Data Analysis

By @gscurftrader.

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