Napoli v Wolfsburg – Stadio San Paolo at 20:05 live on BT Sport 1
Napoli pulled off the shock of round last week by dismissing Wolfsburg 4-1 in their own backyard and crushing our Asian handicap betting recommendation in the process.
But in hindsight, it was the manner of the victory that shocked more than the win itself because Rafa Benitez has created a very good Napoli team, which has substantial European competition experience just like its manager.
The Gil Azzurri are nailed on favourites to progress through to the semi-finals due to their four away goals, which leave Dieter Hecking’s Wolfsburg needing to win by four clear goals in Naples tonight. As you might expect for a team of Napoli’s stature they are yet to concede four goals in a match at home this season and they have only failed to score in 2 of 24 in front of their riotous home fans.
Their recent form had not been great and perhaps contributed to most people underestimating them in the first leg. Benitez’s side had only won two of their previous ten matches heading into a tough looking Serie A match with Fiorentina but they won it 3-0 and went on to beat Wolfsburg & Cagliari both by three goal margins as well.
Napoli don’t have any major injury concerns heading into this second leg match and could well field the same eleven starting players. Unfortunately for Hecking there are a number of critical injuries to key members of his squad including Luiz Gustavo, Vieririnha, Andre Schurrle and Kevin De Bruyne!
Without those key players Wolfsburg’s monumental task of overcoming a 4-1 home leg deficit at Napoli, becomes impossible and with their second place in Bundesliga virtually guaranteed, their season is all but over.
Die Wolfe’s recent form had been very good going into the first leg with Napoli but after that defeat they drew at home with Schalke and are now playing for pride, rather than any tangible goals.
The main Asian handicap betting line for this match has Napoli at -0.25 but with the two sides current form and Wolfsburg’s potential weakened starting eleven, it makes sense to back the home to win the match comfortably.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Napoil -0.5 at 2.22
Prices correct at the time of writing.
Eastbridge the Soccer Betting Broker.