AC Milan v Inter Milan – San Siro Stadium at 19:45 live at BT Sport
This Sunday sees the return of the Milan derby, an iconic encounter that’s always played out in a fierce atmosphere.
They tend to be closely fought affairs, with just one of the last 11 meetings being settled by more than the single goal. These consistently tight margins represent the magnitude of the rivalry and what is at stake.
Milan revitalised under Rino
AC Milan under Gennaro Gattuso has discovered a revitalised run of form. The Rossoneri currently sit seven points off a Champions League spot and face Arsenal in the Last 16 of the Europa League. They’re 13 games unbeaten and are yet to lose in 2018.
Gatusso has instilled a grit and passion that was lacking in the early parts of the campaign, and the introduction of home-grown striker Patrick Cutrone has proved inspired.
They’re on the up and with Inter facing Napoli next weekend, Milan has a cracking chance to make ground up on their neighbours.
Inter’s goal-shy games
Luciano Spalleti’s Inter has been on an indifferent run of late, winning just two of their last 13. They still hold the fourth spot, however, they’re now under pressure with Roma just a point behind, and Sampdoria and AC lurking.
Each of Inter’s last four games against the top-five in Italy has seen fewer than three goals. In fact, nine of Inter’s last 10 outings in all competitions have involved Under 2.5 Goals.
The pair met in the Coppa Italia late in December, and on that occasion, AC Milan ran away 1-0 winners.
Oppose goals at San Siro
Inter did win a five-goal thriller 3-2 against Milan back in October, but before Gattuso took over Milan conceded at least two goals in five games from five against the top-five. So, we have to be wary not to read into that too much.
Since the winter break, the Rossoneri have not conceded more than the single goal in any of their 10 games and have kept six consecutive clean sheets.
Opposing goals looks the way to approach this. AC’s home games average just 1.83 goals-per-game, while Inter’s Serie A travels average 2.08. We can back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.760.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Under 2.5 Goals at 1.760