Man Utd v Man City – Old Trafford at 20:00 live on Sky Sports 1

The second Manchester Derby of the season has the potential to be a real classic. United host City in the 4th round of the EFL Cup with more than a place in the next round at stake. Pep and Jose aren’t enjoying life currently, but a win here will be a big morale boost. Gun to my head, Man City offer some value on the Asian Handicap market, but this is a difficult one to call. One thing I am certain of, is goals and there is some real value on offer.

Man Utd

In the space of a week, United showed us how defensively strong and how poor they can be. Their goalless draw at Anfield was very negative, but tactically, Mourinho was spot on. The same can’t be said for his return to the Bridge. In Jose’s words, Untied were humiliated by Chelsea, in their 4-0 defeat.

For me, United were fortunate against Liverpool. Klopp’s side created a number of chances and if it wasn’t for David De Gea, the Red Devils would have lost. Conceding 14 times in their last 10 matches just proves how mediocre they are at the back. Even if Mourinho reverts back to a more defensive display, like at Anfield, I don’t see them being able to keep even a misfiring City out.

United have managed just 2 clean sheets in their last 10 outings and have picked up 2 points from their last 3 matches in the league. In fact, Mourinho has earned the same amount of points at this stage of the season as David Moyes did and just one more than Louis Van Gaal.

Their recent home form would appear better, with 3 wins and a draw from their last 4 matches at Old Trafford. However, they were unable to beat a poor Stoke side and two of those wins came in the Europa League. Their 1-0 win over Zorya was hardly convincing.

The only real highlight in the last 2 months was their 4-1 win over Leicester, who to be fair, weren’t at the races that day.

Man City

It’s not going to well for the blue half of Manchester at the moment either. After a blistering start to his job as City boss, winning 6 on the spin, Guardiola is now without a win in his last 3 EPL matches.

Like United, the Citizens have taken just 2 points from their last 3 league matches and are without a win in 5 in all competitions.

City have been struggling defensively too, conceding twice against Spurs in a 2-0 defeat, 4 against Barcelona in a 4-0 defeat and 3 against Celtic in their 3-3 draw. They are now without a clean sheet in their last 7 outings and I can’t see them keeping United out tomorrow.

Asian Handicap & Total Goals

Ordinarily I would expect both Mourinho and Guardiola to field a weakened side in the EFL Cup, not tomorrow though. The fact that this is a derby and considering both sides poor recent form, this takes the importance of this match beyond the competition.

Defeat for either side will be very damaging so United and City will be out to win this one. I don’t see a lot to separate the two but the visitors edge it for me.

The Citizens came away from Old Trafford with a 2-1 league win just 6 weeks ago and Utd have regressed since then. City have as well, but I’d rather have my money on them +/- 0 (Draw No Bet) on the Asian Handicap market at 2.04.

For my recommendation though, I’m backing Over 2.5 goals at what looks a huge price of 2.08.

The last 5 cup ties between the two sides have seen an average of 3.6 goals per game. With both defences struggling, this should be an open game with plenty of chances.

Asian Handicap Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 2.08

Prices correct at time of writing.

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