Juventus v Napoli – Juventus Stadium at 14:00 live on BT Sport 2
Juventus may have wrapped up their 4th successive Scudetto a couple of week’s ago but they still have a big part to play in deciding who gets the 2 remaining Champions League spots. With Roma, Lazio and Napoli all fighting it out for 2nd and 3rd, the battle for a place in Europe’s elite competition could go down to the wire if Napoli can avoid defeat in Turin this Saturday.
Napoli are quite fortunate to still be in a position to finish in the top 3 after winning just 6 of their last 12 league matches. They almost threw the chance away on Monday night when they went down to relegated Cesena early on. Dries Mertens was on hand with a brace to spare the blushes of Gli Azzurri as they came through a tough match 3-2.
They need to draw or win this match to stay within reach of Lazio and Roma who face each other on Monday. Napoli then face Roma themselves on the last day of the season, which could be a huge match for both sides in what would be the match in charge for Rafa Bentiez.
Despite their poor second half of the season, Partenopi come into this match as favourites at 2.5 which seems on the short side even though Juve don’t really have much to play for. It’s the last home match for the Champions and will be presented with the trophy after the game so I don’t see them rolling over. They also have an unbeaten home record to protect and have only dropped points on 3 occasions all season.
The Bianconeri have the Champions League final against Barcelona coming up, but despite it being in 2 weeks, I would expect them to rest a couple of players. They have a very strong squad though and the 3.1 looks too big for a team with their home record. They may not be playing at full throttle so backing them on the Asian Handicap betting market +0.25 is they way to go, paying out a half win if they were held to a draw.
There is also some value in the Over/Under 2.5 market. Napoli have scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 7 league games with Over 2.5 coming in on every occasion. Juve’s defensive record at home is very good, conceding just 0.56 goals a game but with players due to be rested and with Napoli having to go for it, the 1.85 available on Over 2.5 is a good bet.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Juvenus +0.25 @ 1.85
Prices correct at time of writing.
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