Hamburg v Borussia Monchengladbach – Volksparkstadion at 14:30
Hamburg still has an opportunity to avoid a first-ever relegation from the Bundesliga but Der Dino’s chances of survival to a big hit last Saturday afternoon as they were taken down 3-0 at Eintracht Frankfurt.
Failing to capitalize on Wolfsburg’s heavy loss to Leipzig, HSV actually started reasonably well. Christian Titz’s troops thought they had taken a first-half lead through Tatsuyo Ito only for VAR to spot a tight offside – Marius Wolf scored shortly after to start the slide.
Teetering on the edge of the precipice is now a near-annual occurrence for the only ever-presents in the Bundesliga since it began in 1963. However, on their third coach of the campaign, their latest great escape appears to have started a little too late to save their skin.
Just three weeks ago, HSV was staring squarely down the barrel, after a 2-0 loss at Hoffenheim left them eight points adrift of safety with four games left. If they were to complete the great escape, it would be the greatest of all, statistically at least. No other team in Bundesliga history has been that far adrift and made it out.
So heading into the final round of fixtures, Hamburg know they must beat Borussia Monchengladbach here, and hope fellow scrappers Wolfsburg fail to succeed on the final day, to avoid automatic relegation. Either way, we should expect HSV to go for it on Saturday and a goal-heavy game may follow.
Goals on the agenda
Their recent upsurge in form has included a more vigorous and urgent attacking approach. The Bundesliga’s least prolific scorers seem galvanized by the task at hand and have refound their confidence, swagger, and belief. Unsurprisingly, that’s led to many more high-scoring encounters.
Last weekend was only the second occasion in seven outings that Hamburg had failed to score but on home soil, HSV has gotten on the scoresheet in each of their past seven meetings with sides above the bottom-five. The last five of that sample saw both sides score.
Five of Der Dino’s last eight Bundesliga games paid out in the Over 2.5 Goals market and seven of their nine home contests against teams occupying 10th position and above have followed suit. So the visit of top-half team Borussia Monchengladbach suggests something similar is on the cards.
Gladbach is finishing with a flourish, tabling three triumphs in five. But four of those matches produced goals at both ends, as well as profit for punters taking our proposed Over 2.75 Goals selection here.
The Foals have leaked at least twice in nine of their 16 away days and are likely to come under plenty of pressure from a Hamburg outfit hell-bent on saving their skin on Saturday.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.75 Goals at 1.790