The abundance of individual ability that France have at their disposal, is simply breathtaking. Although they faltered on home soil in the European Championship final in 2016, the scrutiny the French side faced from the media was unwarranted. The potential within the ranks of Didier Deschamps’ side may have no bounds, with luxuries such as; Antoine Griezmann, Ousmane Dembele, Nabil Fekir, Kylian Mbappe, Thomas Lemar, N’Golo Kante, Benjamin Mendy and many more.
Given the class within the ranks, it’s of no surprise to observe the market attaching an implied probability in the region of 13.33% on Les Bleus lifting their first World Cup since 1998.
France v AustraliaThe market has attached an implied probability of 80.00%, with Les Bleus. As a result, indicating possibly the most one-sided match up from the opening round of games. It is likely that France will possess the highest implied probability average from their opening three games, from across all eight groups. At this stage, France possess an implied probability average of 69.44% from their three scheduled group stage games against; Australia, Peru and Denmark.
So how have France performed under the current market conditions in the past?
By analyzing the historic market data that France possess, we will be able to establish whether there are any discrepancies in the current market.
France v IrelandFrance v WalesFrance v ParaguayThe current implied probability that is attached with Les Bleus opening their account with all three points is 80.00%. The average implied probability extracted from the three examples above are identical. In correlation with the ‘Match Odds’ market the Asian handicap line has been set at -1.75/+1.75, in the three previous games in which the market believed France to possess an implied probability in the region of eighty percent. The three-game average implied probability that has been extracted from the -1.75 line; 51.28%. Which proves to be almost identical to that of the price currently available. However, the element that has not yet been addressed is the ‘Over/Under’ line. In the three-game average implied probability, we presented as an example. The ‘Over/Under’ line was set at 2.75 or greater, which directly correlates with the price on the Asian handicap line. Those three games closed with an ‘Over/Under’ line greater than the one that is currently available.
So is the current price on France -1.75, right or wrong?
In a similar manner to that of the data we extracted from France’s historic market data, the same avenue can be explored by utilizing Australia’s price point data and maybe then we can conclude whether the current market is inefficient.
Chile v AustraliaEngland v AustraliaFrance v AustraliaThe last time France and Australia met, the market appeared to believe in the same fundamentals that are evident in today’s market. However, the element that we questioned earlier has again seemed to arise.
The current price on France -1.75, is it right or is it wrong?
On the previous occasion that both these sides met, the ‘Match Odds’ market set an implied probability almost identical to the one on offer today. However the Asian handicap line was in fact different -1.5 versus -1.75 and the reason for this appears to be the split from within the ‘Over/Under’ market. Previously, the weight of the money appeared to be on the ‘Under 2.5’ side, with the price being pushed and held at 1.88. However, currently, the market has flipped with the weight of the money currently stationed on the ‘Over 2.5’ side. As a result, the current price on France -1.75 appears to be correct with the current ‘Over/Under’ line on the verge of being reset.
Asian Total Goals Betting Recommendation: Over 2.50 Goals at 1.826
Preview by: @gscurftrader.
The stats speak for themselves. This is one World Cup match you wouldn’t want to miss betting on.
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