FC Copenhagen v Astra – Parken Stadium at 18:45

In my previous preview my recommendation of +2.5 goals in the Vojvodina v Dinamo Minsk game, was a tough loss. Vojvodina were unable to proceed and obtain the victory after being loved by the market.

Proceeding on, FC Copenhagen v Astra was a game that generated a standout price in the over’s markets.

Copenhagen could not of produced a more productive start to their season, with three wins from their opening three games. Generating a goal difference of +11, from which they are yet to concede.

However, Copenhagen did concede in the first leg of this Champions League tie. Conceding after seven minutes in Romania.

Observing the probability the market currently have FC Copenhagen, which is 72.99%. This probability does not lie parallel with the position in which the market has assigned +2.5 goals.

Through the observation of historical data based on identical filters, which are being used for this game. This would suggest an underlying value, with 57.56% of games resulting in +2.5 goals occurring. Comparing the data presented to the market’s probability indicates a difference of 11.48% in favour of +2.5 goals.

FC Copenhagen and Astra have met twice in the previous four weeks, with Astra causing the Danish Champions problems on both occasions. Copenhagen have only conceded four goals in the past 10 games, home and away. However, the opposing team has scored first in all four of those games. If the same scenario was inflicted upon this game, we may well be set for an open exciting matchup.

Astra have produced a disheartening start to their Liga 1 campaign with an opening day 4-1 defeat. Followed by a drab 0-0 draw with Pandurii Targu, which has seen them slump to 11th in the table.

However, with only two games proceeded into the current season and the possibility of qualification to the next stage of the Champions League. Astra have the prospect of changing their current situation.

Likewise, to the observation presented from Copenhagen’s market position. Astra’s current probability doesn’t present as much gusto as their opponents, with that being said their probability based on historical data for the occurrence of +2.5 goals is satisfying. Producing a probability of 48.06% or odds of 2.08.

Both teams have scored in 50.00% of Astra’s previous 10 games, home and away. Which would generate an intriguing game, given the market’s love for FC Copenhagen.

In conclusion, taking the two probabilities into consideration and obtaining an average occurrence. This generates a probability of 52.81% or odds of 1.89. Therefore, with the market having +2.5 goals at a probability of 46.08%, there is a vast source of value that is obtainable from this market.

For this reason, I can confidently recommend +2.5 goals occurring at 2.17 with long term profitability certainly obtainable at the recommended prices.

Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 2.17

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @gscurftrader.

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